Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, Julius Baer │It is about time: central bankers present their take on the current mess at the Jackson Hole meeting, the prime plat-form for this. The more concerned they are the better. We think concerted central bank action will still avoid a global recession. Warming up to fiscal easing, as in Germany, is the icing on the cake.
Julius Baer Research| Thanks to significant fiscal support measures, China was able to keep its annual growth rate stable at 6.7% and even accelerate its quarterly expansion rate from 1.2% to 1.8% in Q2 2016. China has several options to manage the expected slowdown ahead: fiscal spending, interest-rate cuts and renminbi devaluation will be able to limit the cyclical risks ahead.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | Westerners love to hazard guesses on China and that is what they are, guesses. Even a Mandarin speaker in Hong Kong (with whom I recently conversed), with family on the mainland and employed at a large private-equity fund, professes no special insights into opaque China. But China’s central bank, The People’s Bank of China, appears to have eschewed the advice of Western central bankers, and gunned the money presses this summer. Moreover, the PBoC tactic looks to be working.
The Chinese authoritiess’ failure to prevent a stock exchange meltdown is casting serious doubts on economic prospects and so fuelling further losses.
On the policy front the Chinese state continues to wield its influence over large parts of the real economy.
The adjustment is serious and is a reaction to the eruption of China’s triple bubble: credit, real estate and stock markets.
Some experts explain what to expect from CNY in the months ahead.
China’s move to weaken its currency by a record 1.9% comes in the wake of poor trade data
BEIJING | July 2, 2015 | By Xu Gao via Caixin | Moves by the Chinese central bank (PBOC) indicate that it is paying close attention to margin trading and the commitment that banks have made to the bourse.