The Corner | June 1, 2015 | Italian risk premium (136.5 bp) should probably come down and be lower than the Spanish one (135 bp) this week despite PM Matteo Renzi’s set back in the country’s regional elections on Sunday, experts at Bankinter commented. (Chart above: Italy Generic Govt 10Y Yield by Bloomberg.)
The Corner | April 7, 2015 | Analysis from Barclays | Spanish composite PMIs rebounded to 56.9 (+0.9 point) in March, as services PMI overshot expectations (57.3) and manufacturing output remained broadly stable (55.5). The services sector’s solid performance (PMI at an eight month high) was primarily triggered by stronger new business.
The Corner | April 7, 2015 | Although the eurozone PMI for March was slightly disappointing, confidence reached its highest level since 2007, according to data released on Tuesday.
LONDON | By Apolline Menut via Barclays | Euro area “flash” composite PMIs came in stronger than expected, almost reaching a four-year high at 54.1 (+0.8 points). The rise was primarily driven by a surge in manufacturing output (+1.4 points to 53.5), while confidence continued to improve in the services sector (+0.6 points to 54.3).
LONDON | By Christian Keller at Barclays | China’s official manufacturing PMI was flat at 51.1in September, slightly below Barclays’ forecast (51.3), but marginally above consensus of 51.0. The data reaffirmed the trend of improving external demand, but soft domestic demand. The China PMI data had a limited market impact, with local markets closed for National Day while AUD fell following the weak sales outcome.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Economic confidence dropped again in September to mid-2009 levels highlighting a worsening of the economic malaise in the Eurozone (EZ). The PMI Index fell 1.1 points to 85 points, well below the long term average (100points).
MADRID | The Corner | UPDATE: Consumer confidence fell to minus 11.4 in September from minus 10.0 in August. Economists had expected a fall to minus 10.5. In major countries, Spanish household consumption is very slowly gaining traction, while France’s economy loses momentum -expect very different behavior in private consumption patterns in the future, Santander analysts commented on Monday. On the left: eurozone’s consumer confidence since 2002; on the right: EZ credit lending to the private sector since 2002.
MADRID | The Corner | August PMI figures confirm what investors already know: Europe’s economy continues to expand at a very low rate. Indeed, the final data have been revised downwards in those cases where no changes were expected, and they are worse than July’s. Final services PMI: 53.1 vs. 53.5 preliminary and 54.2 in July (highest level of the last 3 years). Specifically, PMI services index in Spain rose to 58.1 points in August from 56.2 in July, representing the biggest increase since December 2006. The consensus of analysts expected a slightly lower number of 55.5 points.
Madrid | The Corner | Despite last bad figures of the Eurozone economy, European stock markets are rising on expectations of ECB further action. However, it seems that ECB will wait to see if the actions taken until now and the TLTROs of September and December will take effect. Meanwhile, both Barclays and UBS analysts trust in these measures to support European recovery.
MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).