Caixabank Research | Surprisingly, GDP grew by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and by 11.9% year-on-year thanks to the strength of private consumption and the recovery in tourism. This result suggests that our current forecast for GDP growth for the year as a whole (4.2%) may prove to be too conservative. However, given the risk of a deterioration due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine and the cooling of demand from…
Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | António Costa no longer needs them for a majority. Portugal’s far left put purity before power and lost power. Until 2015, neither the Communists nor Left Bloc had ever been in government. That year, the Socialists fell short of a majority and António Costa made a deal with the smaller parties. In return for policies like free textbooks in schools and a higher minimum wage,…
Merlin Properties’ CEO, Ismael Clemente, said it will take advantage of Portugal’s socimi regime when the country’s legislation is open to the incorporation of the so-called ‘community passport’ for companies from other European countries. Clemente was speaking at the III Iberian REIT Conference. Merlin has been in Portugal since 2015. Together with Spain, it is the firm’s strategic market.
Portugal’s political stability and its government’s renewed commitment to consolidate public finances will keep its public debt ratio on a firm downward path, in contrast with Spain and Italy. Portugal’s economic and fiscal adjustment since the crisis has been impressive, says Scope Ratings.
Morgan Stanley | Fitch has raised its rating perspective for Portugal to positive. This was unexpected and seems to support the market thesis that Portugal’s fundamentals are at similar levels to Spain and Italy. Our macro analysts agree but see posible downside risks.
The electricity distribution network in Portugal is going to be re-auctioned within an ambitous programme of liberalisation launched by the Government. The Portuguese electricity market, with more than 6 million connections, is a quarter that of Spain. Endesa looks to take advantage as it has 18% of the energy supply market in the country.
Since Portugal emerged from the crisis in 2014, its real estate sector has undergone a remarkable recovery. Caixabank Research points that the evolution of house prices, after a fall of 16.3% in nominal terms between 2007-13, have risen by an average of 5.3% per year and are now back at pre-crisis levels.
Fitch has been the last agency to raise its rating on Portugal to investment grade last Friday. The previous increase from S&P in September already showed signs of the sick person being in very good health. Neighbouring Spain should also see an improvement in its credit quality and be included in the A tranche, at least by S&P and Fitch.
In Sober Look, Marcello Minenna gives us a clue about a possible new breach in the euro’s structure. A few years ago (2011-2012), when the euro was going through its worst time, one of the consequences was that the central banks in the peripheral countries increased their debt position with TARGET2.
The blog RWER recently published a very interesting article about Ireland. It tells the tale of an economic miracle, which no-one has been able to figure out yet. And it raises doubts that can well apply in Spain’s case. And Krugman has written an inspiring post about the possible perverse relationship between debt and the decline in Portugal’s population, which could call into question the theory of Optimal Monetary Areas.