SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Five years ago, the former Treasury official who created the “Taylor Rule,” a formula for rate- setting based on the outlook for inflation and growth said that “the Federal Reserve may soon need to raise interest rates”. Five years later, economist Scott Sumner affirmed that “promising year after year of near zero rates is like promising year after year of sub-par nominal growth”. Five years on the “winning prediction” is obvious.