James Alexander via Historinhas | Scott Sumner made a somewhat light-hearted comment in a recent post that “no-one can predict recessions”. It made me stop and wonder what was the point of Market Monetarism in that case. The essence of MM is that market forecasts of NGDP Growth should guide monetary policy, should be monetary policy.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Every time I see the chart for US unemployment these days it looks like it is time for the trend to turn.
Richard N. Cooper via Caixin | Fourteen years ago, Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the term BRIC to stand for Brazil, Russia, India and China – four large emerging economies that might together shape the world economy in the future. With the later addition of South Africa, they came to the agreement in 2015 to create a BRICS bank.
MADRID | The Corner | The Japanese economy unexpectedly entered recession in the third quarter, just after the GDP decreased by an annualised pace of 1.6 per cent, versus forecasts that it would rebound by 2.2 per cent. Japan contracted by 0.4% in the 3Q14, leaving the country in a technical recession, which drove the Nikkei to near 3% losses and raised serious questions about the planned sales tax hike next year.
MADRID | By JP Marin Arrese | The gloomy angst triggered by the most prolonged recession ever witnessed by the Spanish economy in modern times is over. After nine successive quarters of GDP decline, the Central Bank gauges national production might have increased at a meagre 0.1% in the last quarter. This announcement has come as a bolstering relief for government. Ministers openly claim that growth is firmly back on track, the reform plans implemented last year being granted full credit in propelling the economy out of trouble.
NEW YORK |The Federal Reserve is perhaps one of the most important political factors behind the slow but steady US economic recovery -the country is growing at a 2.5% pace a year despite Europe’s recession and China’s slowdown-. But also, and here comes a problem, America’s central bank could be behind the crazy Wall Street rally.
MADRID | By Javier Flores, analyst at Asinver | The question, of course, is how long it will take for the curve to head downwards. No expansion lasts for ever.
By CaixaBank research team, in Barcelona | As was expected, Italy saw a considerable drop in its GDP in the first quarter, namely 0.8%, higher than the one recorded in the last two quarters. This suggests that the recession is biting deeper and shows just how deep. The year-on-year rate of change in GDP therefore fell to -1.3%. This contraction in the level of the activity can be explained by…
LONDON | Less than 5 percent of all small businesses play the biggest role in boosting the UK economy, a new report by Santander Corporate Banking has concluded. The study, released Tuesday, also indicated that this same small fraction of SMEs accounts for two-thirds of all private-sector employment. Santander analysts found that a very limited number of small businesses have a significantly higher economic impact than the rest of the UK small…
MADRID | BBVA Research’s latest estimates confirmed the recession in Spain, pointing to a GDP contraction of 1.3% in 2012. However, economic indicators are revealing a less dramatic than estimated deterioration in the real economy. The data presented in its ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report show that the measures adopted lend credibility to the ability to meet current fiscal deficit targets. BBVA’s economic research department flagged the positive effect of the programme set…