MADRID | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy faces 2015 with electoral commitments and weak prospects. The goal of the Popular Party (PP) is to reach enough votes so as to maintain a large part of its power in the Spanish regions and city councils where it has the majority. The final goal is achieving the re-election in the central government by means of achieving the recovery.
MADRID | By Álex García.
LONDON | By Víctor Jiménez | Raise the main interest rate? Certainly not. Or not yet, anyway. While the US economy is not showing clear signs of having overcome the assisted breathing phase (i.e. printing money or the recently wound up phase of quantitative easing that the Fed finished two weeks ago), the chances are that the Bank of England will keep the price of the pound at a very low level.
MADRID | The Corner | Spain’s real GDP increased by 0.5% q/q in Q3 14 (flash estimate), in line with market consensus. Experts at Barclays believe that most of the growth contribution came from domestic demand, as weak eurozone growth in Q2 and Q3 likely implied soft external demand from key trading partners, including from the largest three economies.
MADRID | The Corner | Showing its confidence in the US economic recovery and the jobs market, the Fed announced it will put an end to its bond purchases scheme before the end of this week, the central bank announced after its FOMC two-days meeting on Thursday. Short-term interest rates will remain near zero for a “considerable time”.
MADRID | The Corner | Loans to the private sector in the euro area fell by 1.2% year-on-year in September, according to the ECB’s data, a slower rate than the 1.5% decline seen in August. Are there reasons for optimism? It depends. “After seven years of crisis, bank loans continue to fall. Those to the private sector have fallen by -0.6% yoy. Loans to non-financial businesses dropped by -1.8%, with Spain and Ireland especially weak,” Barclay’s Alberto Vigil pointed out. “Now if you want to look through a different glass (loans’ reduction is slowing down), the opposite interpretation is also perfectly correct,” he added.
BARCELONA | By Joan Tapia | The Spanish economy has come out of recession and citizens have begun to notice, encouraged by a slight increase in employment creation (albeit temporary, part-time and minimum wage employment, but it at least entails an increase in those joining the workforce). Thus, the CIS’ Economic Confidence Indicator –which ranges from 0 and 100, recorded a low 35.7 (although it represents a 16% increase with respect to 2013). For its part, the Consumer Confidence indicator –which is different and ranges from 0 and 200- is at 89.3, 22% higher than the data from September 2013. The trend appears to point to an awakening of domestic demand.
MADRID | The Corner | Weak loan growth continues in Europe, although there are signs of recovery in corporate lending in France, Italy, UK, Sweden and Belgium. Bank lending surveys point to improving mortgage demand in Italy and Spain; but some deterioration in the UK. For Corporates, banks are reporting some increase in expected corporate loan demand into the year end, most notably in France and Spain, Barclays analysts commented on Friday.
MADRID | By Álex García.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.