The January update of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook”, published in October, confirms that Spain will recover this year all the GDP growth lost during the economic crisis, exceeding in 2017 for the first time the volume of growth in 2008.
Since the beginning of 2014, the Spanish economy has been recovering from a very tough crisis – unemployment jumped from 8% in 2008 to 26% at the start of 2014 and has now fallen to 18.9%. This is in part thanks to the ECB’s extremely expansionary monetary policy and low interest rates. Now after Donald Trump’s victory, everything could become unstable.
“With the recovery embedded we see greater scope for selective risk, taking on asset management in core locations while also considering opportunities in well connected edge of CBD overflow locations,” Deutsche AM Spanish Real Estate Strategic Outlook notes.
The recovery in the construction industry in Spain over the last few months is not just a recurring theme. The sector has definitely again reached the European standards which it failed to meet in the last phase of the property boom in 2004-2007.
The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. With nearly 80% of the information available for 2Q16, the MICABBVA model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) will have completed one year at around 0.8%. If confirmed, this stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).
Disappointing job growth in May at roughly one-third of the expected figure, coupled with a downward revision for the previous two months, cast unexpected doubts on the US recovery. The labour market has slowed to half the pace seen a year ago.
Investment in Spain’s property sector rose 67% to a record 11.7 billion euros in 2015, according to a study by consultancy firm BNP Paribas Real Estate. This figure is 25% higher than the total investment recorded in the pre-crisis years. But the consultancy predicts that the scarcity of adequate investment opportunities will see investment stabilising at around 8.5 billion euros.
The market has already discounted that the ECB will announce new stimulus measures on December 3rd, modifying the current debt purchasing programme. But monetary policy only goes so far, and apart from the central bank’s measures, the Eurozone needs more public and private investment to recover its growth potential.
There is a definite clash between investors and economists over the US economy. According to Intermoney’s Spanish analysts, markets are looking for reasons to take apart the thesis about the country’s resilient activity, arguing that moderate growth is insufficient. Then there are the economic purists, including many Fed members, who are confident the US recovery is sustainable.
The recovery in Spain’s property market is good news for the country’s banks as it will provide a boost for the economy as a whole, while helping reduce the “toxic” real estate assets on the lenders’ balance sheets, says the rating agency.