Link Securities | … After these rises both indices and many shares are somewhat over bought, which is why no-one should be surprised that they pit stop, even more so when considering how much they have risen since the beginning of the year.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | Deutsche Welle’s Tim Sebastian drove Spanish Foreign Minister Josep Borrell furious with very incisive, very biased and very provocative questions, repeatedly questioning the independence of the Spanish justice. However, Mr Borrell was not ready nor prepared to prove that Spanish democracy is a mature and advanced one.
Standard and Poor’s maintained Spain´s rating without changes, at A- with positive perspective. Among the reasons: the uncertainties over the next elections and the tensions in Catalonia.
Santander Research | The performance of the Eurozone economy in 2018 was far from meeting expectations. Having exceeded expectations in 2017, with GDP growth yoy of 2.5% – the strongest since the 3.1% in 2007 – the economy registered a strong slowdown in 2018 with caused up to a 1.8% fall yoy in GDP. Although, probably, the growth levels of 2017 were not sustainable – taking into account the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone and the performance of the rest of the world – , the economic slowdown was strong, especially in the second half of 2018. In quarterly terms, GDP went from growing a quarterly average of o.7% in 2017 to only 0.4% in the first half of 2018 and a quarterly average of 0.2% in 2018.
Spanish banks are last in Eurozone in Tier 1 and penultimate in regulatory capital. But they have an unquestionable competitive advantage: they are the only transparent ones in the Eurozone for the ECB and for the other investors being the only audited ones. There are no skeletons in the closet even if there is less capital to compensate.
Today the proposal of the British government will be known, although we do not know it will be a text agreed with the opposition , which insists it will not negotiate unless Theresa May renounces a no-deal Brexit. The UK is the fourth largest destination for Spanish exports. And the main foreign recipient of investment, so a hard Brexit would do significant damage to the country. All Spanish companies with presence in the UK have been discounting complicated scenarios since 2016.
Miguel Navascués | Theresa May has categorically denied Pedro Sánchez’ illusions over Gibraltar and co-sovereignty which he wanted to sell us. May has said that “Spain has gained nothing of what it sought over Gibraltar”, compared to Sánchez’ claim that “there has been an historic agreement” in relation to co-sovereignty. I don´t believe this issue matters in the slightest to Spaniards.
Santander | The arrival of the new government in Spain is good news for the gas and electricity markets, given that it is probable that it will respect the regulatory periods; it appears more focused on the spirit of the law (“fair returns”) than on the application of methodologies (differential over 10 year bonds) and it has the intention of reinforcing the role of the CNMC as an independent regulator.
Israel Rafalovich | During a meeting on Friday in Brussels between the European Commission and the Spanish government both sides decided to continue the dialogue and cooperation on migration and especially in regard to the challenges Spain face because of the increased migration pressure along the Western Mediterranean route.
Within the framework of the comercial dispute that the US has opened with the EU, the Trump administration has launched a special crusade against the producers of black olives in Spain. According to US authorities, they have been exported to the US at “dumping prices” and damaged the Californian olive sector. The US Commerce Department began investigations in July last year on the Spanish industry, which are awaiting final confirmation. The definitive decision will be known today Tuesday.