T. C. | The Spanish economy fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of the year, returning to negative values after having registered rates of 17.1% and 0.0%, respectively, in the third and last quarter of 2020. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.4%, so the figure is almost in line with forecasts.
Oriol Carreras and Eduard Llorens i Jimeno (CaixaBank Research) | All the indicators suggest that next year will be defined by the same key elements. As we can see in the first chart, to the extent that global growth, and that of the euro area in particular, remains contained, we do not expect to see a significant surge in exports. Therefore, the foreign sector will continue to provide very modest contributions to growth. Moreover, the global environment will remain a source of risk.
The Spanish economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, one tenth less than in the previous quarter and also a tenth less than advanced at the end of July. It is the lowest rate of quarterly growth in three years, according to the National Accounts published this Monday by the National Institute for Statistics (INE).
Santander Research | The performance of the Eurozone economy in 2018 was far from meeting expectations. Having exceeded expectations in 2017, with GDP growth yoy of 2.5% – the strongest since the 3.1% in 2007 – the economy registered a strong slowdown in 2018 with caused up to a 1.8% fall yoy in GDP. Although, probably, the growth levels of 2017 were not sustainable – taking into account the economic fundamentals of the Eurozone and the performance of the rest of the world – , the economic slowdown was strong, especially in the second half of 2018. In quarterly terms, GDP went from growing a quarterly average of o.7% in 2017 to only 0.4% in the first half of 2018 and a quarterly average of 0.2% in 2018.
The European Commission says that Spain continues to grow above the eurozone average and that this year GDP growth will exceed its highest pre-crisis level.
We have seen how the public debt figures are being manipulated downward, and now we’re going to see how there are also manipulations in Spanish GDP, but this time they are upward. From this we can infer that the ratio of debt/GDP, which is a crucial figure for the health of any economy, is seriously undervalued.
Spanish politics will be under the spotlight this week in Europe. The most likely consequence is that Spain’s risk premium will increase and the Ibex will underperform relative to other European stock exchanges.
MADRID | April 7, 2015 | By Fernando G. Urbaneja | There are two lingering black marks against the Spanish economy. The first is rampant unemployment, which is second only to Greece in the euro area and the OECD. The second is a large budget deficit-the largest in Europe-which remains stubbornly high and is still some way off the target of 3% of GDP. Against that backdrop, the Spanish economy has returned to stronger growth this year, with forecasts showing the economy could expand by as much as 3%.
The Corner | March 6, 2015 | In yet more positive news for the Spanish economy, influential foundation FUNCAS has revised its growth projections upwards for 2015 to 3%. Increased consumption and an improvement in the construction sector are the chief reasons for the upward trend.
MADRID | March 1, 2015 | By Sean Duffy | With positive figures being returned on a weekly basis from the Spanish Finance Ministry, Spain appears to have turned a corner in its quest for financial recovery. Yet while the figures are good news for policy makers, the lingering pall of high unemployment continues to cast a shadow over growth prospects.