Alicia García Herrero | 2018 will be recalled as the year in which the US wake up to China’s economic power through a trade war. The question to ask ourselves now is how this may affect Europe. The first issue to realize is that European and US exports into China are very similar, which points to a potential substitution of American products in the Chinese market but also the other way around, namely substituting Chinese exports into the US by European ones.
Guntram Wolff via Caixin | The EU remains a long-standing ally of the U.S. — despite its trade surplus. The successful negotiations of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has also helped to ease the EU-U.S. tensions, though the truce remains fragile.
David Page (AXA IM) | We believe the US has been using tariffs primarily as a negotiation tool; China appears a special focus. But domestic political motives also appear to be a driver.
The performance rating of countries for the last month demonstrates the concerns of investors about the price to be paid for a de-globalization of the world by those countries whose companies focus on exports. Alphavalue offers a ranking of these countries according to its coverage
According to Julius Baer economists, “despite the perceived escalation of US tariffs quarrels being close to a trade war, they remain tit-for-tat trade disputes.” The missing economic rationale behind the tariffs supports their notion of a pure domestic motivation for the disputes.
As all signs point to a trade war with the United States, should the US impose tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, the European Union has decided to immediately activate balancing measures as an alternative to US tariffs which are intended to take effect on Friday June 1st.
Lidia Conde | “There are risks, but there is no reason to panic. It’s important that people understand that we can’t do without globalisation. And also that Europe has so many strong points that it can position itself perfectly well in the world. Overall, Europe is still a producer of excellent ideas and high-quality products which can be exported all over the world,” says Karl-Heinz Paqué, Dean at the Faculty of Economics and Management in Otto von Guericke University.