According to the analysis published in its latest Economic Outlook, Crédito y Caución forecasts that the final data on world trade growth in 2021 will confirm that international trade has returned to pre-pandemic levels. After an increase that will be between 8% and 10% in 2021, the credit insurer anticipates that the evolution will slow down to the 5% to 6% ranges for 2022 and 3% to 4% for 2023….
Esty Dwek (Natixis) | Ongoing weakness across manufacturing and trade shouldn’t be a surprise, but service sectors continue to hold up, even showing a small rebound in June. Overall, we expect slower but stable growth around trend levels for the major economies.
There has been talk for some time about the impact of commercial tensions. But it is clear that palpable consequences remain in the future. Above all when the maintenance of a positive inertia in the global economy could lead to a situation where world trade increases further before starting to worsen.
The decline in world trade, particularly in Asia, highlights an important contradiction in the markets: asset prices are rising, but growth estimates and earnings forecasts for 2016 are being revised downwards.