The Fall In World Trade Is Pricing In 2016

export import

The Baltic Dry, in a nutshell, is an index which measures shipping costs for commodities including iron ore, copper and steel. In their daily bulletin, Bankinter analysts highlight that this index is currently at record lows (504 on Friday), reflecting the decline in global trade, but particularly in Asia.

“This is one of the contradictions which concerns us: asset prices are rising because of the QEs and the absence of alternative investments with reasonable yields, yet GDPs and EPS are being revised downwards…It’s as if 2016 was already being priced in, pressured by the flow of funds. It’s worth keeping a close eye on this kind of contradiction,” Bankinter experts say.

A few weeks ago, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) cut its forecasts for 2015 to 2.8% from 3.3%.


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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.