It’s clear that the prices of physical and financial assets are growing a lot, while debts are increasing strongly. As experience shows, it’s difficult for everything to get back to normal systematically.
Articles by Miguel Navascués
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Draghi is nervous because the dollar has begun to fall, messing up his plan to withdraw stimulus from an economy which is increasingly more dynamic.
We have read that in Tarragona, a province in Catalonia, a flat has been sold for 40000 bitcoins, because that’s what the owner wanted.
How do I see the year 2018? Low growth and productivity, a declining working population, and an unsustainable rise in animal spirits. Everything comes to an end, and the longer it takes, the worse it is.
There’s an idea circulating amongst the central banks or, more accurately, amongst pressure groups in the central banks. The crux of this idea is: “the central banks should normalise interest rates”.
In the IMF blog there is a brief view of how well the year has gone and the promises for the future which we can extract from this good performance. For me it’s proof of an excess confidence which in the past was a trap into which the markets systematically fell. But the IMF has to accept the rationalistic view that the markets don’t get it wrong, while I maintain they quite often make mistakes.
For the time being, Spain’s economy is maintaining its cruising speed and GDP will grow 3.1% this year, according to estimates. But Catalonia’s progress is visibly slowing, with figures continually being downgraded.
Europe has been seriously hit by the outcome of the German elections. And it’s difficult for it not to suffer the consequences of being led by Germany. What is in doubt is whether in the next crisis, which could be fuelled by any of the underlying threats (Russia, immigrants, separatism etc) there will be sufficient common resources to deal with them.
Donald Trump’s tax plan, which is now being debated in the Senate, states very seriously that its effect will be to multiply investment and jobs. That’s up for discussion, given that the US has probably reached its maximum potential, namely in terms of GDP without inflation and the jobless rate is at 4%.
A simple article about the internal balances of payments in the US written by Cullen Roche helps us understand why the Catalan separatists’ famous slogan “Spain is robbing us” is a fallacy. That said, the only thing Catalan secession supporters want is to save on the transfer which they should make as a wealthier region.