Miguel Navascués | The winner of the recent elections, Pedro Sánchez, defined his objective in the previous debates with great precision: to end the increasing inequality in Spain. But inequality is not the main problem in Spain, it does not even have the nature of a problem. To begin, it is not increasing.
Articles by Miguel Navascués
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Miguel Navascués | Recently, in the US, long term interest rates have fallen below short term rates. This has a more concrete significance: the economy is getting weaker and could enter recession. Something unusual has happened which we must explain.
Miguel Navascués | The perception only that pensioners and health spending have lost purchasing power in Spain is not altogether true. We can see this in the data.The UK has a level of public spending per capita only 3% higher, the US 13% and Spain 15% (excluding interest).
Miguel Navascués | Perhaps it will not be so serious, but stock markets are falling and trembling. What has happened? Is it the Armageddon expected for over a year? The Federal Reserve is withdrawing liquidity to quickly from the global system, as can be seen in the graph: 50 billion dollars a month in a heavily leveraged global system, too much, with excessive confidence in expectations that “this time it will be different”.
Miguel Navascués | Theresa May has categorically denied Pedro Sánchez’ illusions over Gibraltar and co-sovereignty which he wanted to sell us. May has said that “Spain has gained nothing of what it sought over Gibraltar”, compared to Sánchez’ claim that “there has been an historic agreement” in relation to co-sovereignty. I don´t believe this issue matters in the slightest to Spaniards.
Miguel Navascués | Still maintaining pensions reforms, given fairly benign assumptions on productivity, growth, employment and immigration, would have to result in the apparition of a significant systemic debt, but the no-reform is therefore today the least bad solution. A rigorous study by the Foundation FEDEA focuses on precisely this point.
The world is over indebted, with a total debt at 380% of global GDP. It is three times it was before the crisis. This debt is both private and public. However, there is no data available on the extent to which this debt has been financed by stock market speculation. We can only infer, from the excessive levels of these indices, that a major part is acting in this activity.
On the tenth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, multiple analyses and opinions can be read on the origins of the crisis. Two have caught my attention: that of Ben Bernanke, who headed the team which avoided the crisis turning into a new 1929, and the opposing view of Paul Krugman, who says that he does not see the connection, and believes that it was a crisis provoked by the collapse of the housing market.
Miguel Navascués | Emerging markets continue seething and carry with them ever less confidence. The latest sign is that the flight of capital has sought refuge in US bonds (and in Wall Street, a new record), among other destinations, and has reduced the yield curve to a minimum of many years of 0.23%.
Global GDP could contract given that reduced production translates into reduced demand for non commercial goods – for example US services which are not exported – which impacts in a contraction of demand. Idem in the other countries. In other words, the decline will be in global demand, not just in comercial but all.