Miguel Navascués | The slope of the interest rate curve has become negative in several countries, among them the most important. As we know, whenever this happens there is a high probability that it is anticipating a recession, in this case global. Some countries will come out of this better than others, but the recession is highly likely.
Articles by Miguel Navascués
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Miguel Navascués | There are many signs that the public think the crisis is over. One is the bankruptcy of Podemos, but there are many more. But has it ended? I doubt it.
Miguel Navascués | Everyone talks ever more passionately demanding that climate change be slowed by changing from energy based on oil and gas to one that does not produce CO2. But no-one explains if technological change will really allow this to happen in time.
Miguel Navascués | The winner of the recent elections, Pedro Sánchez, defined his objective in the previous debates with great precision: to end the increasing inequality in Spain. But inequality is not the main problem in Spain, it does not even have the nature of a problem. To begin, it is not increasing.
Miguel Navascués | Recently, in the US, long term interest rates have fallen below short term rates. This has a more concrete significance: the economy is getting weaker and could enter recession. Something unusual has happened which we must explain.
Miguel Navascués | The perception only that pensioners and health spending have lost purchasing power in Spain is not altogether true. We can see this in the data.The UK has a level of public spending per capita only 3% higher, the US 13% and Spain 15% (excluding interest).
Miguel Navascués | Perhaps it will not be so serious, but stock markets are falling and trembling. What has happened? Is it the Armageddon expected for over a year? The Federal Reserve is withdrawing liquidity to quickly from the global system, as can be seen in the graph: 50 billion dollars a month in a heavily leveraged global system, too much, with excessive confidence in expectations that “this time it will be different”.
Miguel Navascués | Theresa May has categorically denied Pedro Sánchez’ illusions over Gibraltar and co-sovereignty which he wanted to sell us. May has said that “Spain has gained nothing of what it sought over Gibraltar”, compared to Sánchez’ claim that “there has been an historic agreement” in relation to co-sovereignty. I don´t believe this issue matters in the slightest to Spaniards.
Miguel Navascués | Still maintaining pensions reforms, given fairly benign assumptions on productivity, growth, employment and immigration, would have to result in the apparition of a significant systemic debt, but the no-reform is therefore today the least bad solution. A rigorous study by the Foundation FEDEA focuses on precisely this point.
The world is over indebted, with a total debt at 380% of global GDP. It is three times it was before the crisis. This debt is both private and public. However, there is no data available on the extent to which this debt has been financed by stock market speculation. We can only infer, from the excessive levels of these indices, that a major part is acting in this activity.