Articles by Miguel Navascués

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/
Spain has highest proportion of contracts of 6 months or less

Inequality is not Spain’s problem. Unemployment is

Miguel Navascués | The winner of the recent elections, Pedro Sánchez, defined his objective in the previous debates with great precision: to end the increasing inequality in Spain. But inequality is not the main problem in Spain, it does not even have the nature of a problem. To begin, it is not increasing.


The negative yield curve and its consequences

Miguel Navascués | Recently, in the US, long term interest rates have fallen below short term rates. This has a more concrete significance: the economy is getting weaker and could enter recession. Something unusual has happened which we must explain.

 



Stock markets skids, the subsequent panic and the downwards spiral,ready for sentence?

Stock Markets Skids, The Subsequent Panic And The Downwards Spiral, Ready For Sentence?

Miguel Navascués | Perhaps it will not be so serious, but stock markets are falling and trembling. What has happened? Is it the Armageddon expected for over a year? The Federal Reserve is withdrawing liquidity to quickly from the global system, as can be seen in the graph: 50 billion dollars a month in a heavily leveraged global system, too much, with excessive confidence in expectations that “this time it will be different”.

 

 


What Gibraltar matters to the Spanish

What Gibraltar Matters To The Spanish

Miguel Navascués | Theresa May has categorically denied Pedro Sánchez’  illusions over Gibraltar and co-sovereignty which he wanted to sell us. May has said that “Spain has gained nothing of what it sought over Gibraltar”, compared to Sánchez’ claim that “there has been an historic agreement” in relation to co-sovereignty. I don´t believe this issue matters in the slightest to Spaniards.



Global debt is at 380% of world GDP

Hiding Global Debt, Housing The Black Swan Of The Next Crisis

The world is over indebted, with a total debt at 380% of global GDP. It is three times it was before the crisis. This debt is both private and public. However, there is no data available on the extent to which this debt has been financed by stock market speculation. We can only infer, from the excessive levels of these indices, that a major part is acting in this activity.


Where Did The Lehman Brothers’ Fire Begin?

On the tenth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, multiple analyses and opinions can be read on the origins of the crisis. Two have caught my attention: that of Ben Bernanke, who headed the team which avoided the crisis turning into a new 1929, and the opposing view of Paul Krugman, who says that he does not see the connection, and believes that it was a crisis provoked by the collapse of the housing market.


emerging markets are investor's Achilles heel those days

Emerging Markets: Ever more in doubt

Miguel Navascués | Emerging markets continue seething and carry with them ever less confidence. The latest sign is that the flight of capital has sought refuge in US bonds (and in Wall Street, a new record), among other destinations, and has reduced the yield curve to a minimum of many years of 0.23%.


Markets Already Fear Trade Dispute Will Impact Growth

Global GDP could contract given that reduced production translates into reduced demand for non commercial goods – for example US services which are not exported – which impacts in a contraction of demand. Idem in the other countries. In other words, the decline will be in global demand, not just in comercial but all.