MADRID | May 7, 2015 | By Luis Arroyo | Credit lending to the private sector (households and companies) continued to fall in March, according to the Bank of Spain. So as a matter of fact there is more lending activity in the country, yet the money is going to the public sector.
MADRID | April 26, 2015 | By Luis Arroyo | After effusively congratulating the progress of the Spanish economy in his last press conference, Draghi said that some labor reforms are missing. Let’s connect the dots: the ECB’s president is attributing himself the merit of recovery with his expansionary monetary policy, while the demerit that this is not stronger is attributed to Madrid, which is not undertaking enough reforms.
MADRID | March 10, 2015 | By Luis Arroyo | Six years after the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England launched their QE programmes, the ECB proceeded on Monday. Will Mario Draghi at least have the same partial success as his peers? That is, being able to slowly revive the economy and restore hope that the situation is getting back on track. In the graph above, see how five EZ governments are already borrowing at super low rates.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | According to Wolfgang Münchau, Thursday will be a decisive day for the ECB. It will be decisive for the raised expectations, not because we are going to see a QE’s announcement without restrictions.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | What has growth to do with growing inequality? Until recently, we thought that inequality favoured growth, or in anycase it had a neutral impact on it. Growth was the “best supplier” to create new opportunities, through the vertical mobility of the most flexible countries. But the OECD released this report showing how inequality “significantly” curbs economic prosperity. And yet, Krugman is skeptical that the inverse correlation between inequality and growth is so obvious. According to him, strong evidence is lacking, and there are signs that part of inequality can be cured with growth.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | When many were speaking of a new Japanese recession and the failure of Shinzo Abe’s bold Keynesian policy, his Liberal Democrat Party obtained a sweeping victory at the polls on Sunday. In Europe, the Abenomics are in austerity fans’ crosshairs because if these policies happen to work they would look ridiculous. They were delighted when Japan’s GDP contracted in 3Q. But I’ve been following the Nippon economy for some time and I don’t really rust quarterly figures.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Austerians are fighting back, but retreating. At least in what concerns the best Keynes, the financial Keynes, I guess. Three years ago the OECD was calling for a general rates hike. Now, under another leadership, the Paris-based institution is asking for fiscal and monetary stimulus, mostly in Europe.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | As the ECB’s stress tests showed, Spanish banks have enough capital to face a serious economic crisis, with a GDP contraction of 5%. However, this does not mean that Spanish lenders are going to start lending credit right now. Up to present nobody has been preventing them from doing so, and yet credit is not flowing.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | Let’s see some pictures showing how the Spanish labour market truly is at the moment.
MADRID | By Luis Arroyo | The Spanish government has the statistics of the major firms in Spain, whose turnover amounts to more than €6 million, and uses the data to figure out where the economy is going. I don’t think this is a trustworthy source –although it is interesting- because businesses have a bigger self-financing capacity: they are not in need of banking credit to survive.