Where is the success of the painful internal devaluation policy?

Besides, they have more possibilities of receiving a credit than a SME. However, sales, employment, exports and imports in this business sector are not something to shout about. They show a slight improvement with regard to the crisis hole (as happens with the rest of the economy), but it is not as big as we would like or as the government claims it to be.

spanish businesses

The blue line in the following chart shows the total turnover, whereas the green line are Spain’s domestic sales. As you can see, the annual variation rate in May goes back to less than zero –i.e. these data are below the levels registered in May 2013. It is clear, though, that 99% of the sales are domestic.

The second chart shows the exports (blue line) and imports (green line) to and from the European Union. The trade balance of good and services is getting worse once again, since imports from the EU (9.6%) have increased more than twice than the exports (4.5%).

Then, where is the success of the painful internal devaluation policy? It seems its success was only bravado.

In the chart below we can see the employment increase rate in these firms, which has left the negative growth area and has risen by 1.5% annual.  Nonetheless, the fall in the work performance (green line) is again in negative growth.

devaluation policy

In conclusion: the competitiveness allegedly obtained by compressing wages is decided in the EU. Meanwhile, both the domestic and external turnovers don’t advance resolutely ant the only variable that increases is the employment –although its quality is rather doubtful.

If we had a sound recovery, we would see wages increasing at the same time as employment rate. However, what we see here is that there is not much confidence yet in the incipient recovery.

About the Author

Miguel Navascués
Miguel Navascués has worked as an economist at the Bank of Spain for 30 years, and focuses on international and monetary economics. He blogs in Spanish at: http://http://www.miguelnavascues.com/

1 Comment on "Where is the success of the painful internal devaluation policy?"

  1. A better alternative than “internal devaluation” is “FISCAL devaluation”. Instead of cutting wages, cut the taxes that add to the cost of labor, and partly replace them with taxes that DON’T add to the cost of labor: http://is.gd/AdP54U

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