The European Fund For Strategic Investments (EFSI), better known as the Junker plan, was marketed as a “strategic” investment plan which would create jobs and infrastructure and, moreover, would not cost anything.
Market commentators tell us that the price of Brent crude is dropping and indices like the S&P 500 and the Ibex 35 are falling. The reverse should be the case. Have we not been told that Spain has benefited from the decline in raw material prices? This cuts import prices, increases export margins, reduces pressure on wages etc. But it’s not the case. Oil prices have been tumbling for the last year, and whenever these begin start to tremble so do the stock markets.
The markets are connected via expectations. If there is a price change in one market, then this information is transmitted to other markets pricing in easily assimilated expectations within a similar time horizon. All consumer durables markets have an eye on the future. In other words, they have a financial component although the product which is trading on the market has an industrial use. For example, the oil and bond markets.
World stock markets’ current weakness reflects concerns about a serious downturn in China’s economy. The fall in global oil prices is the result of the decline in Chinese demand. The doubt is whether this fall will be a soft one or whether the government will lose control and will be unable to avoid a severe financial crisis
Interest rates have dropped 450 bp to record lows over the last 30 years. And they are at this level because the desire to invest and take a risk is lower than ever. It’s the weak demand from investment funds, not the central bank’s supply, which is the reason for the almost flat interest rate curve.
The blog RWER recently published a very interesting article about Ireland. It tells the tale of an economic miracle, which no-one has been able to figure out yet. And it raises doubts that can well apply in Spain’s case. And Krugman has written an inspiring post about the possible perverse relationship between debt and the decline in Portugal’s population, which could call into question the theory of Optimal Monetary Areas.
In a few days the Fed will meet and, inevitably, will raise interest rates. It is inevitable because it would contradict its discourse if this doesn’t happen. In the short-term it is unlikely to present any problems, because the move is already discounted. But there is something worse: there is the risk that the Fed makes a mistake which it later has to rectify, as has happened in other countries. Sweden is the main example.
Miguel Navascués | Junk labour contracts in Spain were created by the former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe González in 1984. At that time, González fought against the trade unions to introduce the temporary work contract. This proved to be of no use, as unemployment had increased to about 23% by the end of his term in office in 1993.
Europe needs a huge investment drive and that can only come from the breadbasket of Germany. Something similar to the Marshall Plan would benefit everyone, even Germany, as new markets could be opened, while the income of stagnating countries would be increased.
Brazil is an old hand at “catching up” with the rich developed countries, never fulfilling its dream of long-term prosperity. This is partly due to the vicious circle in which the emerging markets find themselves, the origin of which lies in the lack of investor confidence.