Chandra Roy | The next fortnight back at Westminster is likely to be the toughest of Mrs May’s tenure, but equally a testing period for the EU on the prospect of a rejection by UK MP’s, which could ultimately send the process back to “square one” and “open the door to more division and more uncertainty”, as Mrs May’s put it.
Last Friday, the UK and the European Union finally presented a 15-page exit deal, ending six months of tedious negotiations. According to Julius Baer’s analysts “it was the breakthrough UK Prime Minister May needed so badly”, but looking at the details, “the deal contains some serious political stumbling blocks.”
Pressure is high on the UK to offer a better financial Brexit deal and a solution to Irish borders by 4 Dec. in order to unlock the more important talks on trade. A successful exit deal is the precondition to Julius Baer’s base case, which foresees a trade agreement but the loss of the EU passport.