CaixaBank Research (Álvaro Leandro | What consequences the agreement for the UK exit from the EU will end up having remains to be seen and will depend on how trade and foreign investment between the UK and Europe evolve, as well as London’s prevalence as an international financial hub. In Europe, the impact will be mixed across the different economies, depending on their trade and financial links with the United Kingdom.
Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | I haven’t read the 1,246 pages of the EU-UK trade agreement, so I’m going to rely on trusted sources to make sense of the accord. For example, David Allen Green of the Financial Times argues the trade agreement leaves much unchanged. The Joint Partnership Council, alternating between Brussels and London, will be able to make binding decisions without the involvement of lawmakers. So much for UK “independence”.
After 47 years of membership in the EU and 1,645 days since the British citizens voted their way out, finally early in the afternoon of the 24th, negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost reported on the agreement on the conditions of exit and their new commercial relationship, which amount to near €900 Bn annually. This last minute deal avoids one of the biggest risks facing the Eurozone in recent years, but it is “vague in many aspects” and “both parties will force specific changes in the future”, say analysts.
Ranko Berich (Monex Europe) | The details of the deal will be digested by markets over the coming weeks, after traders have finished digesting Christmas lunch. Given the lack of fanfare over services provisions, the EU has likely retained the prerogative for equivalence recognition, importantly for financial services. If this is indeed the case this deal is at best a disincentive for investment in financial services in the UK, and at worst hangs a sword of damocles above the City and the wider economy.
John Bruton | It is increasingly likely that, unless things change, on January 1, 2021, we will have a no-deal Brexit. That would mean the only deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom would be the already ratified EU withdrawal agreement of 2019. Both Ireland and the European Union need their best team on the pitch as Brexit approaches the endgame.
Intermoney | As the pandemic has eased in Europe, long-standing problems have returned to the forefront, one of which is the ever-present Brexit. According to the FT, there is greater willingness to bring positions closer together, so that there would be a breakthrough in the negotiations from 29 June, However, the conflictive issues remain and include: the UK’s demand to hold on to the access to its fishing waters, the disagreements over how to create a regulatory playing field to protect companies from unfair competition. There is also Brussels’ desire to wrap up all the parts of a future relationship into a single legal agreement.
Tristán de Borbón (London) | On March 2 the British government started to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU… and to set out its goals for an agreement with the USA. A strategy that puzzles analysts.
David A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Saturday did not bring certainty to Brexit, after a narrow vote to postpone ratification of the deal until the necessary legislation to implement it has passed Parliament. An eventful week is to be expected in the UK Parliament, and the deal is not dead yet. We remain neutral on the British pound in the short term, as a deal or a delay seem almost equally likely now.
After long hours of discussions, the UK and the EU negotiating teams reached a deal before a meeting of European leaders in Brussels. The legal text (which you can read here) will still need the approval of both the UK and European parliaments.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | All Brexiteers want is fast delivery and no one better placed than Boris to capitalise on their anger and frustration.