GDP

euro espana

The Eurozone Grows At A Pace Never Seen Before: So Does Spain, But There Is Nothing To Celebrate

The Eurozone economy grew by record high of 12.7% in the third quarter with expansion including the four major countries: Germany by 8.2%, France by 18.2%, Italy by 16.1% and Spain by 16.7%. This rebound reflected the largest increase since statistics started being kept in 1995. Specifically, Spanish historical GDP’s followed a plunge of almost 18% in the previous three months. However, these figures has a sort of bittersweet taste as they coincide with the reintroduction of strict containment measures across the region which are likely to make the expected recovery reverse.


Spanish Ministry of Economy Nadia Calviño and Ministry of Finance María Jesús Montero

The IMF Predicts A Lasting Impact Linked With The Coronavirus; Spain, Most Affected In Developed World

The International Monetary Fund revised upwards estimates of global growth in 2020 but warned of a long and asymmetric recovery with uncertainties in which Spain will be the developed economy that falls most in the year. Thus, the agency now expects world GDP to fall by 4.4% in 2020 ( against -4.9% in June), thanks to China’s performance. The IMF forecasts for Spain a fall of 12.8% in 2020 to recover 7.2% in 2021. This drop is more than double that expected for the advanced countries as a whole (-5.8%).


Spain devastated

Spain Enters Technical Recession: GDP Falls 17.8% April-June And 21.5% Year-On-Year

The Spanish economy went into technical recession in the second quarter of the year after registering a 17.8% drop in GDP between April and June. This is the biggest quarterly fall in the National Statistics Institute (INE)’s historical series which began in 1970. That said, this decline has been less than was anticipated at end-July. At that point, and in the absence of some data, the INE estimated that GDP would have declined by 18.5% in the second quarter.


Spain GDP

Spanish GDP Could Grow By Up To 2 pp A Year By 2021/2022 Thanks To European Funds – Bank of Spain

The Bank of Spain presented the update on its growth forecasts for the period 2020-2022, formulating two alternative scenarios. They provide a range of negative growth for GDP in Q3 of 9.5%-12.3% year-on-year (equivalent to quarterly advances of 16.6% and 13% respectively). On the other hand, it flags the upward risk of the various initiatives implemented at a European level, mainly the European Recovery Fund.


Nadia proud spain

The New Term Starts In Spain: Renewed Growth Goals, Temporary Layoffs Extension And Preparation Of 2021 Budget

Nadia Calviño, Minister of Economic Affairs expects, “with all due caution and prudence,” third quarter GDP growth of 10%, in addition to an improvement in employment data. At the same time, Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez anticipated that the aid Spain will receive from the EU Recovery Fund (€140 Bn) will add 2 percentage points to the GDP in the long term.


Spain ratings

Spain Ends 1H20 On The Verge Of Recession With Structural Reforms And Fiscal Changes On the Horizon

Yesterday, it was confirmed the historical collapse of Spanish GDP: it declined 5.2% until March due to Covid-19, its biggest quarterly fall recorded in the historical series. With a contraction of the activivity in the second quarter greater than that in the first taken for granted, Spain is facing a recession. In this context, the Bank of Spain argues that the only way to bring the country’s accounts back under control after the pandemic will be the combination of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. 


US markets

The Gap Between The US Stock Market And The Real Economy Has Increased Sharply Due To Covid19

Last week there were sharp falls in the stock markets (-4%/-5% in Europe, -6%/-7% in the US), with the biggest drops since March. In a context of a significant disconnection between prices and fundamentals after the sharp rises from the March lows, which were discounting an unlikely “V” recovery, these downward moves seem logical. Also the upward excesses, which until last week were the protagonists. Our correspondent in Washington, Pablo Pardo, analyses this stock market and economic chaos.


US presidents

US Stimulus Should Limit GDP Contraction This Year To 3.8% And An Above-Consensus 5.3% Rebound Next

David Page (AXA IM) | Yet even on our relatively bullish assessment the US economy will close 2021 1.7% below the level of GDP it would have achieved with potential growth from end-2019. This suggests the US economy would still exhibit spare capacity – a higher level of unemployment than at the start of 2020 and lower capacity utilisation, something that is likely to leave the Federal Reserve struggling to achieve its 2% inflation target – let alone anything higher.


German business expectations

The First Part Of German GDP’s Drama In Detail

Martin Moryson (DWS ) | The data published yesterday by the Federal Statistical Office confirms the 2.2% decline in German economic output in the first quarter. This had already been calculated in a previous estimate. Combined with the last negative growth quarter of 2019, Germany is now officially in recession. However, Q1 is only the beginning. The real drama will only become evident in the figures for the Q2. Here we expect a 10 percent decline.