The Corner | March 5, 2015 | Markets are again looking to the ECB for a gauge as to where the continent is headed, with Mario Draghi expected to announce more detailed descriptions of the bank’s QE plan. Elsewhere, data from Germany, Italy and Greece are likely to highlight the divergent fortunes of countries within the single currency area.
MADRID | The Corner | EU posts marginal growth stats, but the figures are indicative of slow pace of recovery.
Madrid | By Sean Duffy | Yanis Varoufakis has been causing quite a stir on his trip around Europe. The Greek Finance Minister will meet with his Italian counterpart on Tuesday, and both will be watching market reaction to proposals leaked by the Greek Government last night.
The European Union (EU) is a group of sovereign states, who are sovereign in that they are entirely free to leave the EU. This freedom to leave means the EU is not a “super state.” There is no coercive force — and no EU army — to make Britain or any other country remain in the union. Britain enjoys a freedom, within the EU, that colonies did not enjoy within the British or other European empires. Britain is, therefore, entirely within its rights in considering the option of leaving the EU, although that does not mean such a course would be wise.
MADRID | The Corner | Markets were sad on Monday until Mario Draghi emerged and spoke his magic words. It seems markets feel more secure every time the president of the ECB takes the lead and assures everything will be alright. Investors felt more confident after his intervention at the European Parliament’s Economic and Financial Committee. However, despite his speech regarding new potential actions in monetary policy, he also highlighted the need of deep structural reforms by the Members States. According to market watchers at Link Securities, sooner or later, “such reforms will have to be faced by Italy or France’s government, because it is necessary to make them competitive and able to grow again.”
MADRID | The Corner | The European Commission said on Tuesday it had found no serious fault with eurozone member states’ 2015 budget plans, clearing France and Italy after they made last-minute changes to meet EU demands. The budget review covered all 18 eurozone countries, with the focus on struggling France and Italy after Brussels told them that their original plans fell well short of what was required to meet European Union norms.
MADRID | The Corner | Italian PM Matteo Renzi won the Parliament’s confidence vote on Italy’s labour reforms on Thursday, the most importan in his 8 months in the job. As the country’s economy has been stagnated for two decades, many wonder how far the center-left government’s plans will go. The current jobless rate of the eurozone’s third biggest economy is above 12% (44% youth unemployment). “Italy must reduce the proportion of workers on temporary contracts in the overall work force, but the details yet to be unveiled remain critical to assess whether it represents a true game-changer or not.” analysts at Barclays commented on Friday.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | ECB’s Mario Draghi brought put the bleak panorama that the Eurozone’s economy is facing on the table, and we saw it again reflected in the not-so-promising September manufacturing PMI. The index came in at 50.5 compared to 50.7 in the prior month, whereas EZ Services PMI accelerated at 52.8 for September versus 53.1 in August. Even the composite index plummeted to its lowest fee in the last nine months and reached 52.3. In Germany, both manufacturing and services indexes have also decreased; while in France only manufacturing improved, although it is still contracting.
MADRID | By Francisco López | Are there reasons for such optimism after Draghi’s words in Jackson Hole? Yes, but only if Draghi dares to execute a program of sovereign debt purchases immediately. It happens that not all experts are clear that it will be the case. Especially, because the package of measures adopted by the ECB in June has still not been implemented: two TLTROs auctions and the Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) program. Would it not be better to wait to check the effects of these measures?
MADRID | The Corner | Peripheral equities and bonds have been strongly favored by Draghi’s speech last Friday at Jackson Hole with intense improvements in sovereign credits from Portugal, Spain and Italy, which have reached record lows. In particular, Spain’s 10-year bonds yields are at 2.12% under the 2.38% of comparable U.S. Treasuries and especially today the Spanish Treasury has reduced sharply the interest rates of three- and nine-months bills in an auction of € 3,500 million at historical lows, without entering in negative territory like on the secondary market. Nevertheless, UBS strategists are starting to change their bullish view on peripheral Europe basing on market and fundamental arguments.