Mapfre flags average premium growth of +5%/+6% between 2022-2024; warns its strategic plan does not include the current scenario

MapfreMapfre solvency ratio at 205,3% end-March 2022

Bankinter | Mapfre has delayed its Investor Day (planned for 23 March) to the beginning fo the summer. Whatsmore, it is presenting a new strategic plan 2022-2024, although it warns that this is susceptible to revision. The strategic lines are: Spain, Brazil and the US as its main markets, average premiums growth of +5%/+6%, ROE 9%/10%, combined ratio 94%/95%, solvency 200% and a payout superior to 50%.

Analysis team’ opinion: As the company itself has warned, it’s likely that it will revise the strategic plan given that it does not take the current scenario into account (Ukraine/volatility/inflation…) Considering the low range offered by the company as a base scenario, its projections would beat our estimates. Various arguments reinforce our positive view of the stock: (i) it does not have direct exposure to Russia, (ii) its dividend yield at current prices is 8.2% and (iii) it has a comfortable solvency position (206.3% at the close of 2021). That allows for its performance (-2% YTD) to be significantly better than the Ibex-35 (-6.6%), the EuroStoxx (-14.2%) and even the Stoxx 600 insurance (-5.7%). We maintain our Buy stance.