Intermoney | Q1 2026 results on Wednesday 29 April – EBITDA is expected to have risen by 8% to around €700 million. Aena (AENA) (Hold, Target Price €24) will announce its Q1 26 results next Wednesday 29 April before the market opens, with a conference call expected to take place on the same day, likely at 13:00.
Following the traffic figures for Spain as of March (up 3%), which continue the expected moderation, we believe the P&L figures should reflect a similar trend, as they have not yet been significantly affected by events in the Middle East.
We therefore estimate EBITDA growth of 8% to €697 million, as shown in the table below, with significantly higher growth in Commercial (10%) than in Aeronautics (2%). We estimate net profit at €326 million, implying 8% year-on-year growth. In our estimates for 26-29, we have incorporated the contribution from recent acquisitions (UK and Brazil), as well as the initial impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on cost increases (-€40m in 26). We expect annual traffic growth of 2.2–2.5% in 26–28, slightly lower than previously. Consequently, we are reducing our EBITDA forecast by 1% in 26, whilst raising it by 2% from 27 onwards. We have not yet factored in the announced long-haul investments in Spain.
We confirm our Hold recommendation, which we downgraded in June from Buy, despite raising our Target Price at that time to €24 from €21.5. Overall, we believe that the greater stability in Aena’s operations is already adequately priced in by the market, whilst the operator must contend with the impact of the Middle East conflict, including rising energy costs.
In June, we therefore raised our EBITDA forecasts by an average of 3% for 2025–2027, placing us 3% above the consensus, which led to the aforementioned increase in the Target Price. We continue to value Aeronautics and other activities separately using DCF with WACCs of 8.0% and 8.5%, respectively, as at December 2026. Our downgrade was therefore based purely on valuation; following a strong start to the year, the share now shows slight downside potential. We believe that a sharp increase in long-term capex (not yet included in our forecasts) would represent a potential risk to maintaining the current 80% payout.
