Intermoney | Results for 9mths 2022e – EBITDA will rise 17% (IMVe). Ferrovial will announce its third quarter results on Thursday 27 October after the market’s close, followed by a conference call. The day before Heathrow and Budimex will have released their figures. In our estimates, we expect the strong progression in Motorways to be confirmed, partly offset by a decline in Construction, phenomena already noted in June. All in all, EBITDA to September would increase by 17% to 514 million euros. Ferrovial will not report figures below EBIT, although our forecast for net profit in the 9 months would be 241 million euros vs -100 million in 2021.
With regard to the Motorways business, we value this at 15 billion euros, which includes a VE for the I-66 of 3 billion euros. This is an approximate estimate until we have a minimum visibility from the results. The rest of the managed lanes contribute in total over 9 billion euros. The ETR407 contributes almost 10 euros/share of Ferrovial’s T.P.
We confirm our Hold stance, as well as the T.P. of 24 euros/share with a date of December 2023e; A defensive profile with exposure to the USD, and asset quality already factored into the share price. In our update last month, we lowered our estimates due to the construction business’ rough time. Despite its low potential, and the fact that we slightly lowered our forecasts for EBITDA in ’22e-’24e, we believe the stock offers a defensive profile, given its big exposure to the USD, based on concession assets which are benefitting from the post-pandemic recovery and their maturity process. Meanwhile, the unquestionable quality of the assets, as well as the recovery in traffic in the US are already more than factored into the share price, in our view.
