China’s manufacturing PMI returns to contraction territory, falling to 49.5 points in July

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Bankinter | The Caixin manufacturing PMI returns to economic contraction territory (<50 points) after falling to 49.5 points in July (versus 50.4 expected and 50.4 previously).

Bankinter analysis team view: The decline in activity reflects the loss of momentum in global trade due to the trade war and weak domestic demand in China. The manufacturing PMI has been in expansionary territory continuously from October 2024 to April 2025, but everything points to the increase in exports (hoarding effect) prior to the imposition of tariffs by the United States tending to fade.

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