Link Securities | The Chinese government has released certain economic figures for the January–February 2026 period:
Thus, industrial production rose by 6.3% year-on-year in the two-month period of January and February, exceeding the 5% consensus forecast by analysts and the 5.2% recorded in December. Industrial robots, smartphones and integrated circuits stood out in this figure. Production of personal computers, solar panels and steel fell, whilst passenger vehicle production contracted by 25.6%.
Meanwhile, retail sales rose by 2.8% year-on-year, compared with the 2.1% expected by the consensus of analysts, and following a 0.9% rise in December. The upward trend was widespread across goods and services. All sub-categories recorded positive results, with the exception of car purchases – which were preceded by weak data from the CAAM – fuel purchases and construction materials.
The biggest positive surprise came from fixed capital investment, which recorded a 1.8% increase, compared to the expected record fall of 4.2%, and following the unprecedented 3.8% drop in 2025, with the current trend being the strongest since 1H2025. Manufacturing recorded a modest increase of 3.1%, whilst infrastructure saw solid growth of 11.4%. Much of this improvement was due to property investment, which saw its decline slow to 11.1%, down from 17.2% in 2025 (also its best performance since 1H2025). However, the headline figure contrasted with key indicators, as commercial property sales fell at a faster rate, whilst available financing deteriorated significantly. New housing starts fell by more than 2%.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) described the results as a significant rebound, although it did not point to anything specific, whilst expressing caution regarding a deeper impact from external conditions and geopolitical risks, against a backdrop of persistent domestic structural challenges.
