Intermoney | Q1 2026 results on 7 May – EBITDA is expected to rise by 3% (Intermoney estimate); we have raised our EBITDA forecasts by 4%. Ferrovial (Hold, Target Price €45 against €43) will announce its Q1 26 results next Thursday, 8 May, after the close of trading in New York, holding a conference call the following day at 3 pm.
In our forecasts, shown in the attached table, we expect Construction to show slightly stronger growth (5%) than the Motorways division (2%), the latter being particularly affected by unfavourable foreign exchange rates. On this occasion, Ferrovial will report P&G’s results only up to EBIT. Overall, we estimate that EBITDA will increase by 3% to €317 million as of March. Following annual results that surprised on the upside, particularly in Construction, we have raised our 2026–2028 EBITDA forecasts by an average of 4%, which nevertheless implies a CAGR of 9% between 2025 and 2028. We are on average 3% above the consensus for 26-27.
We confirm our Hold recommendation on Ferrovial, whilst raising our target price to €45 from €43, as at December 26 estimated. We confirm our Hold recommendation, as well as the €45 target price, which we are raising on this occasion from €43 due to the upward revision of forecasts. The stock presents downside potential to December 2026, although the high intrinsic quality of the Group’s assets could help maintain the stock at current levels. We acknowledge the recovery in margins at Ferrovial Construction following many years of crisis, but we believe there is limited growth potential on this front. The weakness of the dollar, with limited prospects for recovery at least for the time being, is unlikely to help the stock in the future, and in fact leads us to lower our forecasts for the Motorways business.
