Renta 4 | The new Strategic Plan (SP) 2026/28 aims to consolidate Amper (AMP) as the Spanish leader in defence and security technologies, focusing on communications and energy storage. The group’s starting position has improved significantly since the new management took the reins in 2022.
The new Plan to 2028 is based on a clear strategy through which Amper aims to capitalise on the strong momentum of investment trends in Defence and Security and Energy and Sustainability.
With attractive targets…
which imply very high levels of organic growth in both sales and EBITDA (CAGR 2025–28 30% and 25%, respectively), with attractive margins and maintaining a solid financial structure (net debt/EBITDA <3.0x) throughout the period.…
which include opportunities for inorganic growth…
with management committed to carrying out between three and five acquisitions of Spanish companies to strengthen Amper’s capabilities. These acquisitions will contribute revenue of €200 million and EBITDA of €40 million in 2028 and will be preceded by the signing of a binding offer before the AGM in June. The first of these will be announced before 15 May.
We are revising our estimates…
as we consider the outlook to be very favourable, particularly in Defence. For the sake of prudence, our forecasts are more conservative on revenue (15% down against 2028 targets) and are closely aligned on EBITDA (1% down against 2028 targets), given the management’s proven ability to optimise the group’s resources, even in adverse environments. Consequently, our EBITDA margin forecast is almost 2 pp higher than the group’s 2028 target (Renta 4’s estimate 16.9% versus Amper’s 15%).
Conclusion: Overweight Target Price €0.24/share (previously €0.17)
We value Amper using a DCF model for 2026/30 and do not take corporate transactions into account. Strong investor interest in the defence sector is the main catalyst for the shares. The announcement of corporate transactions would also boost the shares.
