Jefferies | Although we note that Fluidra’s start to the financial year is broadly in line with JEFe’s forecasts and guidance for the financial year, adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share are 6% below first-quarter forecasts; however, we attribute this deviation primarily to the quarterly distribution of results. Revenue is broadly in line with a favourable combination of prices and volumes, and all regions are recording similar organic growth in terms of MSD. Management continues to implement the cost-saving and efficiency plan. The full-year guidance is reiterated with forecasts at the mid-point and a stable exchange rate so far this year; we expect limited changes to the full-year guidance.
The outlook for 2026 remains unchanged. Management confirmed its outlook for 2026, with expected organic growth of 3–7%, an EBITDA margin of 23.3–24.3% (with forecasts exactly at the midpoint of 23.7%) and organic growth in cash earnings per share (EPS) of 4–13%. Organic growth stands at the midpoint of expectations for the financial year, at 5%, and forecasts will be provided in the coming quarters. We also expect pricing and the cost-saving and efficiency plan to drive better year-on-year gross margins in the coming quarters.
Revenue in line with forecasts. Fluidra recorded revenue of €564 million in the first quarter, stable year-on-year and with organic growth of 5% due to the impact of the US dollar. Management notes that prices rose by 2% and volumes by 3% in the first quarter. Most regions were broadly in line with expectations, with similar organic growth rates in the 4–6% range.
Adjusted EBITDA 6% below expectations. Gross profit was in line with gross margins of 57.1%, some 20 basis points below (consensus: 57.3%). Adjusted EBITDA stood at €124 million, 6% below expectations (consensus: €132 million). EBITDA margins of 22.0% were around 140 basis points below the consensus (23.4%). Adjusted EBITA was 7% below consensus, with margins around 130 basis points below forecasts. Cash earnings per share (EPS) stood at €0.32, 6% below forecasts (€0.34).
Free cash flow and balance sheet. Net operating working capital over the last twelve months (LTM) was at much better levels, at €583 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8%, whilst the LTM ratio improved by almost 300 basis points year-on-year to 26.7%. Consequently, the net debt position fell to €1.28 billion, with a slight reduction in leverage.
