Report by Bankinter
This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase: in April and May, production rose by 206,000 bpd each month, and in June by 188,000 bpd.
Bankinter analysis team’s view: the impact of the news is moderate, in a context where supply has fallen sharply. As a reference, in April OPEC+ production stood at 33.2 million barrels per day (Mbd), representing a reduction of almost 10 Mbd compared to February (42.8 Mbd).
This is an attempt to demonstrate some control over supply in a context of strong internal tensions, reflected in the United Arab Emirates’ recent decision to leave the cartel from May onwards. It is worth noting that the UAE produces 3 Mbd (3% of global output) and would not wish to be constrained by quotas. This decision is significant not so much because of the UAE’s weight, but because it opens the door for other members to take the same decision. This Monday, Brent crude is rising sharply: $97.6 per barrel (4.8%) as geopolitical tensions escalate following Iran’s attacks on Israel. Our baseline scenario envisages a context of lower supply. Consequently, we expect high oil prices: Brent crude will close the year at $85 and 2027 at $80.
