Morgan Stanley analysts reiterate their OW (Overweight) on Caixabank and maintain the stock as a sector Top Pick, as they believe that the market is undervaluing the bank’s capital generation capacity by analysing DTAs (deferred tax assets). Additionally, they now assume in their base scenario a €1.5bn buyback that they expect to be announced in Q3, which together with a mark-to-market of the yield curve, justifies an upward revision of…
Spanish households spend more, but consume less. This is one of the main conclusions of the Household Budget Survey published by the INE, which determines that the average expenditure per household in 2022 increased by 7.9% with respect to the previous year, to reach €31,568. This figure exceeds pre-pandemic levels in global terms, with an increase of 4.4% compared to 2019. However, these figures are magnified by the effect of…
Morgan Stanley| With the general elections just around the corner (July 23rd), Rob Pulleyn has published a report in which he discusses the possible outcomes of the elections (and therefore possible energy policies) and their implications for utilities with exposure to Spain. Overall, he believes that the impact will be significant, but in his baseline scenario, he believes that Spanish utilities will generally do well as a result of the…
Banca March: Consumer confidence bounces back higher than expected in June, rising to 109.7 from 102.5 and above the 104 expected. With this acceleration in consumer confidence, the index reached its highest level since January 2022. This is positive given that both the current situation sub-index improved (155.3 vs. 148.9 previously) and the expectations component also improved (79.3 vs. 71.5 previously). Still in the US economy, we also had positive…
Link Securities | According to elEconomista.es on Tuesday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said in her opening speech at the central bank forum in Sintra (Portugal) that the ECB will probably not be able to declare the end of its historic cycle of interest rate hikes any time soon. In that sense, Lagarde said that it is unlikely that in the near future the central…
Link Securities| In his speech to the Summer Davos Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is still on track to achieve its annual growth target of close to 5%, with 2Q2023 expected to grow faster than 1Q2023. The Chinese Premier acknowledged that China’s development still has imbalances and is inefficient, and that economic output per capita still remains low. He argued that companies, not governments, must decide how to…
The German 2s10s curve has inverted to two-decade highs, surpassing the levels seen in March. Macro continues to slow and Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts lower their growth forecasts for Europe with the German IFO contracting, for the second consecutive month more than expected by both consensus and Morgan Stanley… and in line with last Friday’s disappointing European PMIs. The bad data is again concentrated in the deterioration of the expectations…
Intermoney| According to data published by Anfac, vehicle production in Spain continues on its clear path of recovery and in the first five months of the year increased by 19.9% to reach 1.08 million cars. In May, growth was up 35.9%, with 249,906 vehicles produced. Of the vehicles manufactured up to May, 90.8% were exported to other countries (up 3.7pp vs. 2022 levels), while in May the percentage of vehicles…
Link Securities | Aena (AENA) is in negotiations with banks to refinance two credit lines for an aggregate amount of €1,450 million, with the possibility of extending the principal of the same to around €2,000 million, as reported on Monday by the newspaper Expansión, according to various market sources. The refinancing follows the appointment of Ignacio Castejón as Aena’s new chief financial officer last November. According to the sources consulted,…
Renta 4: European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.2%). In the background, promises of new stimulus measures in China by Prime Minister Li Qiang that could accelerate its economy in 2Q23 after the weakness shown by the latest data, although without any specifics. On the macroeconomic front, we highlight yesterday’s worse-than-expected deterioration in Germany’s IFO survey, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected opening of the Chinese economy, the…