Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | With all the macroeconomic numbers, political news flow and earnings season reporting that has been going on, investors have had their hands full finding time to assess the situation. At the same time, there has been a quite substantial price reaction. So, the easing of the news intensity has brought a pause to investor activity.
Although low growth in Europe is set to persist, the IMF points to a + 1.8% rebound by 2020 justified by the expectations that international trade will rebound and the industry will begin to grow.
There are a few paradoxes in Europe’s biggest economy unquestionable economic slowdown. Labour market remains solid. The last macro data shows a lower deterioration than expected, thanks to the expansion of other neighboring economies such as the French. Also, Berlin malaise has not hit the stock market. The DAX has outperformed other European indexes this year.
The operation reinforces the position of Iberia owner IAG on the Europe-LatAm routes, where it will have a 26% share (vs 19% current). One of the main competitors of IAG in these routes disappears, since Air Europa was the sixth operator Europe-LatAm, and the main one in the hub of Madrid.
Unigestion | October began in the shadow of highly negative expectations but ended on a positive note, as key dangers were avoided. Will this trend continue, which assets will end up flying to the moon, and how can we position ourselves for the final 40 trading days of the year?
Peter Isackson (Fair Observer) | We may soon be obliged to call our beloved fake news “shallowfake news” now that deepfake technology threatens to disrupt our perception of the truth.
BOfAML | IAG has agreed to acquire Air Europa, a value carrier, for €1bn as it seeks to increase its market share in the South Atlantic market and turn Madrid into Europe’s next hub airport. The acquisition is in cash and will be funded by external debt increasing IAG’s net debt / EBITDA by 0.3x (from 1.2x at 3Q19). This raises questions on the potential cash return to shareholders.
Santander bank secured a net profit of 3.732 Bn€ in the first nine months of the year, 35% less than a year before, after making provisions of 2.448 Bn€, mainly because of the adjustment to the goodwill in the UK due to Brexit.
Bankinter | Repsol has published weak results for 3Q19. Principal figures compared with the consensus (Bloomberg): Ebitda 1.597 Bn€ (-21%); adjusted NAP 522 M€ (-11%) vs 529 M€ estimated (Bloomberg); Net Profit 333 M€ (-47%).
Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) | The imprisonment of the Catalan separatist leaders has exacerbated regional tensions, with potentially profound political consequences, although the short term economic impact of the latest separatist protests will be limited.