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Articles by The Corner

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The Corner
The Corner has a team of on-the-ground reporters in capital cities ranging from New York to Beijing. Their stories are edited by the teams at the Spanish magazine Consejeros (for members of companies’ boards of directors) and at the stock market news site Consenso Del Mercado (market consensus). They have worked in economics and communication for over 25 years.
Abengoa copper mine

In the World, World economy 18th February 2021

Chile, Egypt, Senegal, Malaysia and Vietnam: Bright Spots In A World Economy That Just Begins To Recover From Covid-19

Theo Smid (Atradius) | With the economic outlook improving, there are opportunities to be found. We identify markets that have relatively strong prospects. Promising markets are identified based on three criteria: (1) the pace of GDP recovery in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, (2) a relatively low number of Covid-19 cases (per 100,000 inhabitants), and (3) stable political and institutional conditions. We do acknowledge that for some countries there may be an underreporting of Covid-19 cases, as testing capabilities differ per country. Therefore, we attach a higher weight to the other two factors in the selection of countries. Based on these broad criteria alongside our market experience, we have identified Chile, Egypt, Senegal, Malaysia and Vietnam as the most promising markets.

Pedro mascarilla españita

Spanish economy 18th February 2021

The Reforms That Spain Needs For Facilitating Recovery After Historic Economic Contraction

Scope Ratings | The government is prioritising growth over budgetary discipline, which for the moment is appropriate given the large output gap. Spain will run a wide budget deficit for some time. For 2021, the authorities forecast a deficit of 7.7% of GDP, which is based on a rather optimistic economic scenario. Thus, should growth be weaker than expected in the coming years, Spain’s public finances would deteriorate further – a risk captured with Scope’s Negative Outlook.

Acciona hydrogen

Ibex, Markets, Spanish economy 18th February 2021

Acciona Allies With Plug Power To Take 20% Of The Green Hydrogen Market In The Iberian Peninsula

The group has reached an agreement with U.S.-based Plug Power to create a 50/50 subsidiary to develop green hydrogen projects in Spain and Portugal, hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. The companies aim to achieve a 20% market share by 2030, thanks to an initially planned €2 Bn investment. Plug Power will be the preferred supplier of electrolyzer technology to the new venture, while Acciona will be the preferred supplier of clean electricity.

Germany

European politics 17th February 2021

The Upcoming Fiscal Debate In Germany

Intermoney | Days ago, Helge Braun, a close associate of Angela Merkel, proposed reforming Germany’s constitutional limit on public debt. This is an issue facing great resistance within key sectors of the CDU/CSU, making it difficult for it to go beyond the status of a mere proposal, but whose mere proposal represents a turning point. This debate will gain momentum after the September elections.

The paradox of the ECB long-term refinancing operations

European politics 16th February 2021

The Rimini Platform

Gilles Moec (AXA Group Chief Economist) | In Rimini in August 2020, Mario Draghi gave a speech which in retrospect could well define his action. Draghi called for a reform of the European economic framework. This will be crucial for Italy, and hence for the fate of the whole monetary union. A structural reform platform primed by public spending will need time to prove itself to the markets. The fiscal surveillance system needs to evolve. As President of the ECB, Draghi did wonders thanks to Angela Merkel’s silent support (her refusal to criticize him for his unorthodox monetary policy). As, potentially, head of government of the Euro area’s third largest economy, he will have to get explicit support for a new framework.

Oil rigTC

In the World, World economy 16th February 2021

The Cold Snap In Texas Raises Oil prices Temporarily – It Is Reasonable For The Rise To Be Gradual

Bankinter | The price of oil rebounded strongly yesterday (Brent $63.3, +1.4%; West Texas $59.5, +2.1%), due to the cold weather in Texas, the main US oil state, which is causing supply problems. Therefore, the rise is one-off. In our view, a strong and sustained rise in crude oil prices poses a risk for the stock markets due to the impact this would have on economic growth.

nadia calvino bruselas

Spanish economy 16th February 2021

The Spanish Government Will Approve In March A Package Of Direct Aid To Companies

For months, and from different sides of the spectrum, including the government’s own partner Podemos, there has been a demand for the design of a direct aid package aimed at those companies whose viability is at risk. Podemos’ proposal includes a fund with an initial contribution of €8 Bn. It is not known if the amount of the direct aid package will be adjusted to this proposition or not, but at least there will be aid.

inflation

In the World, World economy 16th February 2021

Morgan Stanley’s Global Inflation Surprise Index Enters Positive Territory For The First Time In Two Years

Our strategists have identified a list of European companies with the best and worst pricing dynamics, which is a good way to play reflation. This is in line with our estimates which keep unchanged the narrative that global growth and inflation will surprise on the upside this year, even more strongly, as the global inflation surprise index has entered positive territory for the first time in two years. Moreover, the index is at 10-year highs for the US, while leading indicators point to further rallies on the way.