Fernando Rodríguez | Analysts who study banking stocks every day do not seem to pay much attention to the factors which condition the systemic banks. In general, they feel that whether a bank is systemic or not should not influence its stock market performance or its dividend policy. It should not be the only criteria for investing in a bank.
The so called Trump trades, and particularly the long USD trade, have seen a correction this year. Indeed, it started after President Trump’s first press conference after the elections, on 11 January, where he used strong rhetoric against US companies that invest abroad and then export to the US. BoAML believes that the market is still pricing a benign scenario, in which the new US administration delivers fiscal stimulus and deregulation, but does not go ahead with trade protection. F
Julio Rodríguez | The economic recovery continues to boost a market which has seen prices rise 10.8% in the last three years. But this dynamism contrasts with the problems for accessing the housing market which young aspiring home owners are experiencing. A more energetic government policy is required to establish a pool of homes for rent and strengthen the creation of social housing.
The 2014 -15 oil price crash led to sharp pullbacks in upstream capex, leading to the “conventional wisdom” (as held by the IEA, EIA, and OPEC Secretariat) that a supply gap will open up by the end of the decade due to limited greenfield projects and accelerating decline rates… but Citi’s analysts disagree with this consensus.
Sopra Steria and Indra Sistemas are small market caps (respectively €2.2bn and €1.7bn) compared to their peers Atos and Capgemini with market caps of €10.0bn and more. Both stocks trade at reasonable 2017 P/Es (respectively 13.4x and 13.6x) and analysts see significant upsides for both stocks. Indra is clearly more of a high risk- high return proposition while Sopra may have to cope with Brexit-induced uncertainties
The Bank of Spain warns that the Spanish economy is progressing against a backdrop of “high uncertainty” at the start of 2017, along the lines of what happened during most of last year, associated to a large extent with geopolitical events.
Mari Pinardo | As advisor to the Democratic Party for years, Juan Verde is still perplexed by Donald Trump’s victory. Fearful of what the new administration means for the US economy, he doubts that Trump has the capacity to develop the promised infrastructures plan.
The advances in inflation figures throughout the Eurozone will be a subject of debate in the coming weeks, not least because of its bigger-than-expected rise. An increase which has a common thread in the form of hikes in energy prices and, to a lesser extent, in food prices.
Cellnex signs up for two new projects in France worth €854 mn, in line with its strategy for boosting its international expansion. It will now become the second biggest independent towers operator in France.
José Luis M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Without doubt, banks can benefit in the medium and long-term from those companies which the term “fintech” encompasses. And competition in the short-term, particularly in the segments of payments and loans, is a small price to pay considering the synergies and the revitalising effect for the banks of being digitally closer to the client.