ATHENS | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | If there was any doubt that the negotiations between the new Greek government and its lenders are going to be incredibly tense, there isn’t now. The European Central Bank’s decision on Wednesday night to stop accepting Greek government bonds as collateral from local lenders has minimal practical impact in the short-term but maximum effect in symbolic terms.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Thursday brought some positive predictions on the Spanish economy from the European Commission, but buoyancy on European markets may be negated by data due from the US later today.
MADRID | The Corner | Despite the markets’ first negative reaction to the ECB’s restricting Greece access to its direct liquidity lines, Morgan Stanley analysts reminded on Thursday that nobody should be that surprised: in 2012, one third of the Greek balance sheets were financed by the ECB, and most via ELA. Plus, Greek banks can still get ECB liquidity if they use ECB eligible collateral.
By Jens Bastian via MacroPolis | The parliamentary majority achieved by the SYRIZA-led coalition government following the 25 January elections constitutes a strong political mandate in mathematical terms. Among one of the many immediate challenges facing the new administration is trying to translate its numerical advantage into a majority of support among Greek citizens, including those who did not vote for the senior coalition party.
LONDON | Sigrún Davíðsdóttir | Forget economics, politics is key to understanding the Eurozone. The cries of “Grexit” lately have mostly been a repetition of an earlier discourse: in February 2012 Citi’s economists Willem Buiters and Ebrahim Rahbari coined the term “Grexit,” by July 2012 estimating its likelihood to 90%. Cheered on by the media, economists have taken over the debate of the Eurozone which is why much of it has been such a futile exercise: it is not economics, which ties the Eurozone together but the political determination of its leaders to make the euro work. With political will likelihood of any exit is 0. Ergo, Grexit is as unlikely now as it has always been in spite of the EU brinkmanship. One route Greece seems to be exploring is a tried and tested one: the “bisque clause” from 1946.
MADRID | By Ana Lopez Varela | Cutbacks and balance sheet losses at the British oil giant are indicative of a more widespread malaise afflicting the oil industry. While there has been a correction in profit forecasts, firms are likely to adjust their business model accordingly.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Today is a massive day for the euro zone. The outcome of negotiations between Greek politicans and European bosses will be closely monitored by markets and euro zone partners alike. With Greek banks under pressure, a deal needs to be agreed soon.
TOKYO | By Nobumasa Akiyama Via Caixin | Deeds not words will determine whether Shinzo Abe will be a success in 2015, a year full of challenges.
Madrid | By Sean Duffy | Yanis Varoufakis has been causing quite a stir on his trip around Europe. The Greek Finance Minister will meet with his Italian counterpart on Tuesday, and both will be watching market reaction to proposals leaked by the Greek Government last night.
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | Markets will be looking to how relations between the new Greek Government and European creditor nations play out in the week ahead. After a week of tense negotiations, the stakes are increasing all the time. Greek claims of insolvancy have irked its eurozone partners, but can all sides find a middle ground in the coming days?