The Corner | April 2015 | Welcome to the heart of earnings season, with one-third of the S&P 500’s firms reporting today –Google, Amazon, Pepsico, Procter & Gamble and Starbucks amonth them. Analysts are pointing that 75% of the companies have beat forecasts, which is better than the 63% average since 1994. “Everyone knows the game: analysts reduce investors’ EPS expectations so firms can beat them,” experts at Link commented.
The Corner | April 23, 2015 | The number of unemployed Spaniards decreased in the first quarter of 2015 by 13,100 people, and reached the figure of 5,444,600, according to the official Employment Active Population survey released on Thursday (23.78% of the active population). “The employment survey seems to be the only one of which the government is not afraid,” famous radio host Carlos Alsina ironized, referring to Mr Rajoy’s cabinet struggle to contain the fallout from a tax investigation against former senior leader of the party and IMF head Rodrigo Rato.
ATHENS | April 22, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | The Greek government made another payment to the International Monetary Fund earlier this month. This time it was just 450 million euros, a relatively manageable amount compared to the 1.5 billion that Greece had to pay back to the IMF in March. Each of these payments brings relief that a possible default has been avoided, but they also bring greater anxiety that a default is getting closer.
April 22, 2015 | BNP Paribas | There is further upside risks on global consumption, especially in lower-income EM countries and the Eurozone. However, we do not believe that global deleveraging has come to an end: wage growth and inflation will likely continue to trend low over the coming years.
LONDON | April 21, 2015 | Barclays | The ECB remains committed to deliver its QE target of a more than €1.1trn balance sheet expansion through asset purchases and sought to dispel fears over asset scarcity.
The Corner | April 21, 2015 | Markets remain divided about the Greek debt negociations –or rather the lack of them. Time is running out and Athens’ legislative act asking public sector entities to transfer idle cash reserves to Greece’s central bank, in order to deal with a cash squeeze, proves it. That plan could raise about 2 billion euros ($2.15 billion), according to sources quoted by Bloomberg.
As Cuba and the US bury the hatchet, friends, both old and new, are doing business with each other.
PARIS | April 20, 2015 | By Francesco Saraceno | Recently I commented on the intriguing box in which the IMF staff challenges one of the tenets of the Washington consensus, the link between labour market reform and economic performance. But the IMF is not new to these reassessments. In fact over the past three years research coming from the fund has increasingly challenged the orthodoxy that still shapes European policy making.
The Corner | April 18, 2015 | The IMF raised growth expectations for all the major economies in the Eurozone – especially Spain to 2.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016- and for Japan. The new figures, the sixth improved forecast in a row– are more aligned with Madrid expectations (2%, although the Minister of Economy even forecasts a 3% growth). Low oil prices, the euro depreciation and the ECB’s monthly liquidity shots are the three aces of the Spanish government, who is hoping to retain the power in the next general election despite the popularity of new parties.
BEIJING | April 17, 2015 | By Huang Yiping via Caixin | The recent establishment of private Internet banks has ushered the banking industry into an era where banks need no brick-and-mortar offices. Technologies like big data make this possible, yet there is disagreement over how much potential Internet finance has.