Since Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, the markets have seen declines in fixed income securities – bonds have lost 1.5 billion dollars – and rises in equities – with the value of global equities rising by 1.7 billion dollars. The emerging markets have retreated, while there has been an improved performance from cyclical sectors, particularly the financial sector. So we need to ask what will be the best bets for investors once Trump’s presidency begins.
The unexpected weakness of the US dollar continues to provide support to precious metals. Prices gained 1.2% and 2.3% to USD 1,217 and USD 17.2 per ounce yesterday as president-elect Donald Trump said the dollar was overvalued.
Santander will not have to take the Fed’s qualitative stress test. From this year, only those banks with over $250 billion on their balance sheet. Its US holding has just $142 billion in assets. Not having to take the qualitative part of the test will increase Santander’s flexibility for implementing its plans to reward shareholders (dividends and/or share buybacks).
If Theresa May could deliver on the proposals in her speech the UK would not see a ‘ hard Brexit ’. PM May suggested, to our mind, a ‘ cherry picking approac.Furthermore, PM May did not address the divorce bill the EU has said it will see.
Cellnex shares have under performed the sector by c.16% since mid -Oct 2016, mainly due to higher government bond yields and the market’s rotation out of yield stocks which, in the case of TowerCos, may have been exacerbated by their dependence on M&A.
The Spanish banking sector’s stock market rally has been suddenly cut short. The listed banks’ index had risen over 45% since the minimum levels of June 2016 until the first week of January. But since then, it is seeing a correction. Two matters of concern for investors are the impact of the floor clauses ruling on the banks profit and loss account, as well as the problems of the Italian banks.
Concerns about auto sector in 2017 are rising as US president-elect Donald Trump threats against US companies relocating their production to Mexico. Local players have capitulated to the President-elect’s dictates- Ford cancelled plans to build a new Mexican plant- which suggests that the industry’s spine is a weak one after all as it lobbies its way into the new balance of power.
Last year, IAG transported 100.67 million passengers (+14%) and improved its occupancy rate to 81.6%, (+0.2%), thanks to a good performance from its routes to Europe and North America.
The TED spread is an indicator of liquidity risks in the interbank market. It is the difference between the 3-month interest rate on interbank loans and the yield on 3-month US Treasury Bills. Any rise in the indicator would lead the banks to ask for more Treasuries and be more reticent about granting loans.
Técnicas Reunidas has been awarded by Saudi Aramco the contract for the turnkey project Clean Fuels within the Ras Tanura refinery on the east coast of country. No financial details of the contract have been revealed, but it means a good start to the year for the company and strengthens its position in the Middle East market.