Banca March: The ECB expects to reach the 2% inflation target this year. This was stated yesterday, Wednesday, by the President of the institution, Christine Lagarde, on the X social network. It should be recalled that price growth slowed down last year, even falling below the ECB’s target in September, although prices have picked up again in recent months. The slowdown has allowed the monetary authority to cut interest rates…
Norbolsa | Christine Lagarde has declared that they are very close to bringing inflation to target, while warning that services inflation still requires close monitoring. The other focus of questions is around the impact of Trump’s tariff measures, again coming out in defence of free trade and the danger of such policies. The Governor of the Irish Central Bank, Gabriel Makhlouf, also said that Trump’s policies are unpredictable, and is…
Bankinter : Labour Costs rebounded 4.6% in Q3 against 5.2% previously (revised up from 4.7%). Wages were up 4.4% versus 4.9% previously (revised up from 4.5%). Our view: Wage pressures remain elevated and will hamper the ECB’s rate cut process in upcoming meetings. This is especially so as they will be coupled with a more hawkish Fed as a result of the pick-up in inflation that will be triggered by…
Bankinter: The October Unemployment Rate repeats at 6.3%, as expected. No surprises and no market impact. In any case, it is an excellent historical low level within a slightly downward trend during the last years. Eurostat estimates that in October 10.841 million people were unemployed in the Eurozone. Compared to September, unemployment decreased by 3,000 people in the Eurozone. Compared to October 2023, unemployment decreased by 411,000. By Eurozone countries,…
Norbolsa: EU fiscal plan: The European Commission reported that France’s 2025 draft budget and medium-term plan to reduce public debt are in line with EU rules (it is projected to have a budget deficit of 6.1% of GDP this year and by 2025 aims to reduce it to 4% and then bring it below the EU limit of 3% in 2029), while the Netherlands’ spending plans are high. The European…
Intermoney: The confidence indicators were published yesterday in the Eurozone, both the one referring to consumers and the one referring to businessmen. Regarding the former, in the Euro zone as a whole we saw a noticeable change for the worse, with consumer confidence as compiled by the EC falling to -13.7 pts (vs. -12.5 est.). Concerning the business climate, in this case we had the national reading in France, which…
Bankinter | Moody’s maintains Portugal’s rating and outlook at A3 “Stable”. For our analysts this is good news for the Portuguese economy. “The financial rating agency considers that this rating is a reflection of a competitive and diversified economy”. Moody’s forecasts GDP growth of +1.6% in 2024 and +2.2% in 2025. However, it continues to point to challenges such as the high public debt ratio, although it acknowledges that it…
Link Securities | The ZEW institute published yesterday that its index measuring sentiment about Germany’s economy among major investors and analysts declined in November to 7.4 points from 13.1 points in October, also below the 13.3 points expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. This was negatively influenced by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the German coalition government. The index measuring their perception of…
London is claiming VAT from the airline group on the redemption of points for flights in the loyalty program. The holding company has already paid £103 million, although it disagrees and does not rule out going to court.IAG, the parent company of Iberia, British Airways, and Vueling, is clashing with the British tax authority (HMRC) over the VAT of IAG Loyalty, its loyalty subsidiary that allows the redemption of points…
Bankinter : The BoE has cut the policy rate by -25bp, as expected, to 4.75%, but sends a slightly more cautious message about the next moves. Analysis team’s view: Our central scenario pointed to a cut at this meeting. We do not expect any further moves for the rest of the year, especially given the expected pick-up in inflation in the last three months of the year and the level…