Intermoney | The EU is the area that would be worst off in the event of a war in Ukraine. At this point, it is worth remembering that Russia was the first supplier of the EU in terms of energy raw materials in a normal year such as 2019. In that year, 46.7% of the EU’s imports of solid fuels (i.e. coal), 41.1% of those related to natural gas and…
The number of registered workers in the Eurozone exceeded in the fourth quarter of 2021 the figure recorded in the same period of 2019, thus recovering for the first time the level of employment prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data published by Eurostat. According to the EU office, the number of employed people increased in the fourth quarter by 0.5% in the Eurozone and in the European Union…
Ali Batuhan Barlas / Adem Ileri / Seda Guler Mert / Sinem Senel / Yesim Ugurlu Solaz (BBVA Research) | Industrial Production (IP) surprised onthe upside, increasing 14.4%yoy in calendar adjustedterms (vs market expectation of 0.8%). IP also rose by 1.6% mom, resulting in a 4.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in 4Q21 (vs 2.0% qoq in 3Q21). Both retail sales and turn over index in the services sector suggest that consumption remains…
Juan Pedro Marín-Arrese | Christine Lagarde is trying to convince the markets of the ECB’s strong determination to tame the current inflationary bout. To avoid having its reputation as caretaker of price stability tarnished, the ECB has to reverse the benign neglect shown up to now. Yet, Lagarde is conscious of the narrow scope monetary policy has when dealing with supply-side cost hikes. Thus, rather than taking the pivotal action…
The worldwide semiconductor shortage will continue during the first half of 2022 and could be extended, with some improvements, until 2023, according to a recent report by the consulting firm IDC. Europe has already prepared for this scenario with the European Chips Act presented yesterday in Brussels, a semiconductor law that aims to position Europe as a powerhouse in chip production. The EU aims to quadruple the production of microchips…
*This article was originally published by Fair Observer. Atul Singh & Martin Plaut | Since Brexit in 2016, the United Kingdom’s growth rate has been poor. Inflation is at its highest rate in 30 years. In December 2021, it had risen to 5.4%. Wages have failed to keep up and, when we factor in housing or childcare costs, the cost of living has been rising relentlessly. COVID-19 has not been…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | Despite no changes in the policy stance, the tone of the press conference was clearly more hawkish than anticipated. Lagarde noted that risks around inflation are skewed to the upside, especially in the short-term and the March projections on inflation will set the stage for future policy moves. Recent inflation developments are a reason of concern across the Governing Council as second round effects from…
Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | António Costa no longer needs them for a majority. Portugal’s far left put purity before power and lost power. Until 2015, neither the Communists nor Left Bloc had ever been in government. That year, the Socialists fell short of a majority and António Costa made a deal with the smaller parties. In return for policies like free textbooks in schools and a higher minimum wage,…
Supply problems in German retail have eased considerably. In January, 57.1 percent of retailers complained that they will not receive all the goods they ordered. In December, the figure was 81.6 percent. This is the finding of an ifo Institute survey. “With the end of the Christmas season, the pressure has abated somewhat,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “Nevertheless, many retailers can’t fulfill every customer request because…
Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | The outcome of the Italian Presidential election (Mattarella re-elected and Draghi remaining PM) is the best-case scenario for Italy in the next 12 months. As such, BTPs should benefit from the expected stability and the integrity of the two major political figures. In the short term, we see chances of a modest tightening in spreads vs Bund. We remain relatively optimistic on Italy’s recovery story…