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European politics 24th June 2020

Brexit Negotiations Back On: But The Difficult Problems Of The Past Remain

Intermoney | As the pandemic has eased in Europe, long-standing problems have returned to the forefront, one of which is the ever-present Brexit. According to the FT, there is greater willingness to bring positions closer together, so that there would be a breakthrough in the negotiations from 29 June, However, the conflictive issues remain and include: the UK’s demand to hold on to the access to its fishing waters, the disagreements over how to create a regulatory playing field to protect companies from unfair competition. There is also Brussels’ desire to wrap up all the parts of a future relationship into a single legal agreement.

Signs of a future increase in inflation

European economy 23rd June 2020

The Impact Of The COVID-19 Outbreak On European Inflation

CaixaBank Research | The impact of the coronavirus on inflation is uncertain, as there are simultaneous supply and demand movements that can tilt the balance towards more inflation, disinflation, or even deflation. In the short term, despite measurement problems and the closure of markets, disinflation has dominated. In the medium term, several factors suggest that disinflationary pressures will continue to dominate. In the long term, transformations such as deglobalisation or shifts in consumption patterns could lead to structural changes.

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European economy 22nd June 2020

The Appeal Of Investing In Banks Is Very Strong: Expectations For Revaluation Are Close To 100% In A 1-2 Year Period

Ofelia Marín-Lozano (1962 Capital SICAV) | The starting point is much more solid than in 2008, when the banks emerged from many years of double-digit credit expansion and high rates. In addition, European banks have significantly improved their equity base, which is double, or even almost triple, the levels reached a decade ago in all their solvency ratios. The ratio of higher quality capital to risk-weighted assets, (CET1 or common equity tier 1) has risen from levels below 6% in 2011 to over 14% today. 

The ECB bets on buying private debt

European economy 19th June 2020

Demand For Financing From The ECB Reaches Record Highs Of €1.3 Tr, With Net Injection Of Near €550 Bn

Spanish banks have requested more than €97.9 Bn in the auction. Caixabank has already announced that it has requested 40.7 billion euros, the total to which it is entitled. Other lenders have also made their moves: €27 Bn requested by Sabadell, €21 Bn by BBVA and €9.2 Bn by Bankia. In Italy, Intesa and Unicredit have already reached € 70,000 and €93,000, the latter reaching its limit. Some systems in southern Europe (such as Italy) could have reached 85% to 90% of their total TLTRO limits.

germany reinvented

European economy 18th June 2020

Germany Reinvents Itself And Bets On Europe And High Tech

Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) |  German corporations are highlighting the risks of the global distribution of work, their weakness in the face of global value chains. Will work and production return to Europe, to Germany? It’s not clear. The pandemic has led to unprecedented reactions and almost unconditional support for Europe. It’s a way of helping yourself. Germany is expecting the worst recession since World War II, with the economy declining by up to 8% in 2020.

EU recovery fund

European politics 16th June 2020

Ten Out Of 27 EU Members Are Critical Of The European Recovery Plan

We approach at the European Council on Friday with two distinct groups of countries clearly expressing concerns about the Commission’s proposal. Some because they do not welcome any attempt to share risks, while others believe the programme benefits nations they consider to be rich. These are the axis of the frugals (Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden) and the Visegrads (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia). These would be joined by Finland and Estonia, which have also shown their discomfort with the proposal.

frankfurt sklyline

European economy 16th June 2020

Who Is Going To Pay In A Low/Negative Yield Environment?

Allianz Global Investors | That question is heard quite often in connection with the corona-related fiscal packages. While there is no shortage of suggestions of how the new public expenditure and old debt is to be funded, many people seem to be overlooking the fact that the current low or negative interest-rate environment is already making a major contribution to debt reduction. This article will analyse the impact of implicit interest rates, growth and inflation on debt ratios in Germany, France, Spain and Italy.

The ECB thinks that the European financial system could withstand even lower rates

European economy 12th June 2020

EU Strengthens As A Hub For Green Finance: 45.4% Of 2019 ‘Green’ Bond Issues Globally Were Denominated In Euros

In 2019, the euro consolidated its role as the second most widely used currency in the world at a considerable distance from the dollar, which retains its hegemony as the global reserve currency. The exception was in the area of green bond issues, where euro-denominated issues once again led the market. Specifically, according to data provided by the ECB, about 45.4% of ‘green’ bond issues worldwide were denominated in euros, compared to 25.7% in dollars and 28.9% in other currencies.