IMF expects European industry to rebound
Although low growth in Europe is set to persist, the IMF points to a + 1.8% rebound by 2020 justified by the expectations that international trade will rebound and the industry will begin to grow.
In Europe
Germany: No fiscal measures for now; DAX outperforming
There are a few paradoxes in Europe’s biggest economy unquestionable economic slowdown. Labour market remains solid. The last macro data shows a lower deterioration than expected, thanks to the expansion of other neighboring economies such as the French. Also, Berlin malaise has not hit the stock market. The DAX has outperformed other European indexes this year.
Germany: What will happen to the middle class
Lidia Conde (Frankfurt) | The fourth globalization now punishes the German middle class, which perceives how the revolution accelerates and introduces new elements such as the competence of Indian computer experts operating from home: they do not need to emigrate to work.
Germany’s AfD Conundrum
(European Views) | The elections in the German states of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia were the latest success stories of Germany’s far-right party, the AfD. Moreover, the question amongst politicians remains: how to deal with a party, that seemingly overcomes a long-standing law in German politics: there is no life on the CDU’s right.
Berlin strikes a deal to freeze rents
Yves Bonzon (Julius Baer) | Back in June, we argued that financial repression, which consists of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors, can take several forms and is not confined to negative yields. At that time, the city of Berlin launched an initiative to freeze rents for five years from 1 January 2020. The governing coalition now struck a deal that looks fairly similar to the initial draft.
Germany Cycle: Stabilisation At Low Levels Provides Little Comfort
Gilles Moëc (Axa Investments Manager)| Those who like to see their glass half full probably took comfort in the fact that in Germany the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded by 0.2 pp in October relative to September, but this was again short of expectations and the absolute level remains very concerning.
Eurozone composite PMI at 50.2, its maximum for the last two months
Eurozone’s economy remains stuck near the stagnation at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the year. The demand for products and services has fallen for the second consecutive month, according to the latest data from Markit’s PMI index.
‘A Waste of Time and a Waste of Energy’ – Junker on Dealing with Brexit
(European Views) | Addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg, President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Junker has described Brexit as ‘a waste of time and a waste of energy.’
Brexit: Somewhere between a deal and a delay
David A. Meier (Julius Baer) | Saturday did not bring certainty to Brexit, after a narrow vote to postpone ratification of the deal until the necessary legislation to implement it has passed Parliament. An eventful week is to be expected in the UK Parliament, and the deal is not dead yet. We remain neutral on the British pound in the short term, as a deal or a delay seem almost equally likely now.
How German Reunification Could Change Global Capitalism Today
Dennis Snower & Markus Engels (Fair Observer) | Thirty years after the Berlin Wall, the contours of a new, socially enlightened and responsible capitalism are beginning to take shape.