A ‘Brexit’ Map for Sterling
UBS | A date for referendum is set and the pound is getting pounded. The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the UK announced that the referendum vote will take place on 23 June 2016.
In Europe
UK Exit Affects All of European Union
Maxime Larivé | European governments have let a member state of the European Union (EU) cherry-pick the terms of its place in the union, potentially setting an irreversible situation. But should the United Kingdom remain an EU member under its new agreement? This question should be asked to all EU citizens.
Hats Off To Cameron
Just as he did with the Scottish referendum, David Cameron has also pulled it off in the case of Brexit: the possibility that the UK will leave the EU. His negotiations with the EU have been efficient, giving him freedom of action on issues which, in any event, will have to be reformed, like the free movement of citizens.
Ibex 35 Companies Currently Pay The Highest Dividends
F. Barciela and F.G. Ljubetic | Not everything is bad news with stocks. The current collapse of the markets has produced very clear opportunities for all those investors who give priority to dividend payments.
It’s Not All Bad About European Banks
UBS | What’s happening? Banks are trading at distressed PE and P/TNAV multiples. Emerging Market/China/ APAC slowdown and oil going to US$30 are potentially triggering a downturn in the credit cycle and concerns over credit/exposure quality in general.
Multiple Crises Fence In Greece
Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | In its first period in government, between January and September 2015, SYRIZA did not experience any general strikes. Since the September elections there have been three, making the number of such protests one of the few things in Greece that is heading upwards. The other rising indicator is the number of pressing problems Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces.
Can Europe Remain Resilient?
UBS | Tracking Europe’s resilience In this report, we aim to shed light on the question we have been asked most frequently in recent weeks: “Can Europe hold up when problems elsewhere are getting worse?” So far, the Eurozone has held up respectably, which we attribute to the fact that European growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, not exports. We believe this should also provide Europe with decent resilience going forward.
European NGDP Shaping Up To Be Dull, But Not Down
James Alexander via Historinhas | Market Monetarists like to look at expectations for NGDP growth, but also need historic data. The paradox of Euro Area market turbulence in spite of strong QE and historically recovering NGDP growth is a puzzle, perhaps 4Q15 NGDP is setting a poor trend like in the US and the UK ?
Draghi Wants The Cake, And Eat It
Francesco Saraceno | Yesterday Mario Draghi has called once more for other policies to support the ECB titanic (and so far vain) effort to lift the eurozone economy out of its state of semi-permanent stagnation. I just have two very quick (related) comments.
A Summit To Shape The Future Of The UK And The EU
BARCLAYS | If there is to be a June referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, an agreement between the EU and the UK on EU reform needs to be found this month. The 18 – 19 February EU summit is widely perceived to be seen as the best opportunity to strike a deal, though the possibility exists that a deal could be reached at a follow – up extraordinary summit, shortly after.