BBVA Research | A significant review of the prudential treatment of sovereign risk , as a result of which it may lose its privileged status of zero risk weight, has started at a global level. The Basel Committee is already working on this issue, but no formal outcome is expected before the second half of 2016. In Europe, this topic is beginning to gain importance although no measure s are expected in the short term.
James Alexander via Historinhas | In a “currency war” it pays to be the loser. If you need an expansionary monetary policy, like most currency blocs today, don’t let anyone undercut with dirty devaluations. So, when a big baby like China decides to lower the value of its currency versus the biggest baby of all, the USD, make sure you are not caught in the cross fire.
UBS | 2015 has seen a sharp decline in oil prices, and we exit the year at around a 7-year low. However, we see reasons to be upbeat – we are certainly more optimistic than we have been for the past 2 years, and more constructive than merely extrapolating from current market conditions.
Yiannis Mouzakis via Macropolis | During 2015, Greece’s ability to meet its debt obligations became one of the most drama-ridden aspects of a story that started unfolding when SYRIZA won the January elections.
Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | On October 14, the German government lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.8 percent to 1.7 percent. Despite this, the economic minister, Sigmar Gabriel, expressed his expectation of higher economic growth next year.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | There are probably a number of officials in European capitals, and perhaps Washington, who have been scratching their heads over the past few days after the Greek government indicated that it would prefer the International Monetary Fund not to be involved in the country’s bailout.
The UK’s seven biggest banks which participated in the Bank of England (B0E)’s stress tests not only passed them, but were graded for their resilience to a range of adverse shocks, including a strong slowdown in growth in China and sharp falls in oil and raw material prices. Santander’s performance in the tests stood out, demonstrating that it is one of the lenders which is in best shape.
Many people feared that the outcome of the December 20 elections in Spain would be difficult to manage. But the final situation is much worse than expected. As soon as the recount began after the voting, the conservatives of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP) lost their hopes of forming a majority government with Citizens (Ciudadanos). Spain is now, undeniably, facing a period of difficult coalition-building after yesterday’s elections. And this is a very worrisome situation for the country as uncertainty is likely to increase, affecting the mood of investors and companies.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Almost alone among economic commentators we do actually look at Nominal GDP data as it is released. Full Euro Area NGDP data for third quarter 2015 was released this week alongside the 2nd estimate of Real GDP. We have already posted here and here on the good news as three of the “big 4” Euro Area countries, making up 75% of the Euro Area economy, had seen accelerating NGDP. The not so good news is that the little countries saw less acceleration.