Peter Lundgreen via Caixin | Back in 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised a referendum about the country’s future in the European Union if he got re-elected in a national election this year, and now a vote on the issue is set for 2017 at the latest.
ViEUws | In November 2014, Jean-Claude Juncker became leader of the EU’s most powerful body – the European Commission. Backed by a large majority of MEPs, the former Luxembourg Premier promised an “agenda of reform”.
BARCLAYS | Headline inflation surprised slightly to the downside while core prices increased more than we had expected. At the non-core level, energy inflation remains weak (-8.7%). At the core level, both non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) and services prices increased by 0.1pp, to +0.4% and +1.3%, respectively, and leading the unexpected 0.1pp rise in core inflation.
Fernando Barciela | Is the banking crisis over? I don’t think so. There is a lot of very bad news coming out from some of the biggest European banks these days. Deutsche Bank said on Thursday it would shed 35,000 jobs. The German lender reported a $6.6 billion quarterly net loss. So it will trim its investment banking operations and close operations in 10 countries.
France’s proposal to move forward with eurozone fiscal and political integration, with a single government for the area, one budget…is still at at a very early stage. As German experts point out, the reality is that none of the 19 parliaments involved are currently considering giving up any more sovereignity.
BBVA Research | The current economic recovery in Europe is atypical and fragile. Domestic demand is strengthening, the external environment is more negative. But what about other figures?
JOHN BRUTON | With a refugee crisis, a banking union and the prospect of a Brexit, the European Union is faced with a host of questions. The situation was described at the EPP Congress as the “most serious crisis for the European Union since its creation.” This is not an exaggeration.
Compared to the US, Switzerland has been a low inflation country, but the recent turn to deflation smacks a lot of too low NGDP growth.
PARIS | Francesco Saraceno | I was puzzled by Daniel Gros’ recent Project Syndicate piece, in which he claims that Germany’s dominance of the EMU may be coming to an end. Gros’ argument is based on two facts. The first is the slowing growth rate of Germany; the second, more geo-political, is the lack of willingness (or of capacity) to manage, the crises that face the EU (in particular the refugees crisis).