MADRID | The reform of the pension system in Spain is planned to help to improve the outlook for sustainability of the system by reducing pension expenditure as a share of GDP. It should weigh in towards reducing the public deficit, too. At BBVA, analysts have drawn some basic comparisons between the Spanish and the German pension systems. “Given uncertainties about employment, productivity and demographics, it is appropriate for the…
LONDON | The National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London said the European Monetary Union will take a long year and a mild recession before finding its way towards growth. The UK’s economy would evolve along the same path. In a prospect note, analysts at the NIESR indicated that their baseline forecast is for global growth of 3.7 percent in 2012. Growth will accelerate to 4 percent in 2013. “We…
LONDON | Those regions in Spain and Italy awarded better risk qualifications than their countries as a whole have overcome the latest turmoil in the euro zone without difficulties. Fitch Ratings issued Wednesday a positive comment on the Italian and Spanish subnationals rated above the sovereign. The agency said that their debt and debt service coverage ratios with the operating balance have largely remained in line with those of similarly…
MADRID | Brussels seems to start taking growth into serious consideration. Up to now it follows the line that bringing deficit under tight control would be enough to trigger recovery, austerity standing as the only recipe to cure every shortcoming. The severe downturn that currently plunges European economies into utter disarray is casting doubts on the merits of such a simplistic view. Countries having lived beyond their means face now a…
By LaCaixa Research Team, in Barcelona | In the years prior to the recession that started in the last decade, in many countries the gradually increasing debt of the private sector allowed for much more intensive economic growth than would have been seen without it. The abrupt appearance of the crisis frustrated this expansion and revealed an excessive level of debt. This debt is now a heavy burden that can counteract…
LONDON | J.P. Morgan asset management had some cold words on the news that the UK has entered a double dip recession. Tom Elliott, global strategist at the investment company said that “For most people, the country has felt like it has been in recession since late 2008, so news of an official double dip will be no surprise.” In a short note released after the British office for national statistics…
LONDON | Already in the mood to dismiss 2012 as a lost year for the UK economy? Analysts in the City of London waived as a non-event the preliminary GDP estimate of this year’s first quarter, released Wednesday by the office of national statistics, which showed that the British economy had contracted by -0.2%. The negative figure added up to a -0.3% fall in the economy in the final three months…
By Jesús Sánchez-Quinones, in Madrid, for Cotizalia | Europe has for more than three years now been immersed in a profound crisis of its economy and beyond. The focus of trouble has been moving from country to country. First it was Greece, when its authorities acknowledged that they had falsified its public account figures in late 2009. After Greece, the focus shifted to Ireland when his government had to seek a bailout to…
Awaiting the government’s official figures, which will be released next 30 April, the forecast published this week by the Bank of Spain should be taken as a telling sign of the success that austerity budgets throughout euro peripheral State members are enjoying. The Spanish central bank said that it expects the country’s economic activity to fall by 0.4pc during the first quarter of 2012, a one-tenth down from 2011’s last…
MADRID | Although nine candidates attempted on Sunday to pass through to the second round of the French presidential elections, only two mattered in the dispute for the trophy: Nicolas Sarkozy, current president of the republic, and the socialist Francois Hollande. Two days after the first round of elections, the polls are very clear and give a significant advantage to Hollande, with an intention to vote of 54% against 45% for Sarkozy….