Top Stories

In Europe

euro area 777x400 1

European economy 1st July 2023

Eurozone on brink of recession

Martin Wolburg (Generali Investments)| The eurozone entered a technical recession during the winter half-year. However, indicators suggest that activity expanded again thereafter. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, however, we expect activity to moderate again, bringing the eurozone to the brink of recession. The main headwinds come from the global environment, which keeps manufacturing industry on a downward trajectory. At the same time, financing conditions will continue…

Eurozona IPC

European economy 30th June 2023

Eurozone inflation slows in June to 5.5% from 6.1%, but core inflation rises to 5.4% from 5.3% in May, reinforcing ECB’s stance

The year-on-year inflation rate in the euro zone fell six tenths in June compared to the previous month, reaching 5.5%, compared to 6.1% in May, which is the lowest increase in prices since January 2022, according to preliminary data published Friday by Eurostat. The moderation in the rise in prices in June is mainly due to the 5.6% fall in the cost of energy, compared with the 1.8% drop in…

ECB night

European economy 30th June 2023

Spain -1.8%; Italy -0,9%… Bank lending starts to fall in peripheral countries

A further slowdown in lending to the private sector in May, already contracting in the peripheral countries. The ECB published yesterday the data on lending to the private sector in the Eurozone, where it confirms the progressive slowdown in bank lending to +2.7% year.on.year in May vs. +3.5% in April and a peak of +6.5% in September last year, so that it is already slightly below its pre-pandemic levels of…

lagarde sintra 2023 copia

European economy 28th June 2023

Lagarde confirms in Sintra that ECB will continue to raise rates at upcoming meetings

Link Securities | According to elEconomista.es on Tuesday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said in her opening speech at the central bank forum in Sintra (Portugal) that the ECB will probably not be able to declare the end of its historic cycle of interest rate hikes any time soon. In that sense, Lagarde said that it is unlikely that in the near future the central…

germanbond

European economy 28th June 2023

German 2s10s curve inverted to two-decade highs

The German 2s10s curve has inverted to two-decade highs, surpassing the levels seen in March. Macro continues to slow and Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts lower their growth forecasts for Europe with the German IFO contracting, for the second consecutive month more than expected by both consensus and Morgan Stanley… and in line with last Friday’s disappointing European PMIs. The bad data is again concentrated in the deterioration of the expectations…

Talgo

European economy 27th June 2023

Danish Parliament approves contract extension for Talgo to supply eight additional intercity trains for €184m

Banc Sabadell| Talgo (TLGO) announced on Friday at the opening that the Danish parliament has approved the extension of the contract with DSB for the supply of eight additional intercity Talgo 230 trainsets (and fleet parts for their maintenance) for a sum of €184 million (~4% of the portfolio including the DB contract and Egypt). Assessment: Positive news although of little impact given that the contract was already announced and…

IAG

European economy 27th June 2023

IAG CEO acknowledges interest in TAP

The CEO of IAG, Luis Gallego, said on Monday that the integration of the Portuguese TAP into the holding company “could be an opportunity” depending on the conditions established by the Portuguese government for its privatisation. Gallego pointed out that it could benefit the group with the connections that TAP has with Brazil and parts of Africa, where IAG currently has no presence. According to Gallego, the incorporation of new…

BCE Atril

European economy 26th June 2023

The mother of all repayments: European banks to repay €477m of TLTROs this week

Santander Corporate & Investment: This Wednesday European banks are to repay €477mm of TLTROs which will reduce excess liquidity in the system materially and funding via TLTROs to only around €600mm at a delicate time of acceleration of the QT programme from 1 July and with market sentiment further dampened after the ECB/FOMC and the flash PMIs plunge on Friday. For Italian banks, a geography where the gap excess liquidity…

european commission

In Europe 23rd June 2023

EC to require EU members to make temporary contribution of 0.5% of their companies’ profits from 2024 as a prelude to a European corporate tax

BancaMarch| Brussels is asking EU countries for €16 billion as a prelude to the European corporate tax. According to Expansión, the European Commission will require EU countries to make a temporary contribution of 0.5% of their companies’ profits from 2024 and until they agree on a common tax on companies to replace it. The aim of the measure is to strengthen the EU’s coffers in order to be able to…

PoundsTC

European economy 23rd June 2023

Red alert in UK: CPI rebounds in May to repeat previous month’s +8.7% and core CPI rises to +7.1%

Banca March: May’s inflation data has precipitated a sharp move in UK official rate expectations that put the UK’s terminal rate at 6% and assigns a 40% probability that the Bank of England would launch a 50bp “jumbo” hike at Thursday’s meeting, which would raise official rates to 5%. The concern stems from the rise in core inflation to 7.1% and the eleventh consecutive upward surprise in headline inflation to…