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European economy 1st February 2023

January electricity price in Spain (€70/MWh) half that of large European economies (€140/MWh)

ASE Group | Renewable generation reached 13,559 GWh in January, beating its previous record in March 2018 (13,204 GWh). The pull from wind and hydro has allowed renewables to respond to 65.1% of electricity demand, its highest mark to date. Wind power leads the mix with 32.4% of the total, after producing 38.1% more than a year ago. Meanwhile, hydroelectric power increased by 94.2% compared to a year ago, according…

European economy 31st January 2023

Consensus remains optimistic, expecting +1.3% for Euro Stoxx 600 EPS.

Santander Corporate & Investment : First serious test for credit markets. After the several buckets of cold water coming from the Fed and the ECB since Jackson Hole, the last one in mid-December, here comes a new test for the markets. And especially in the US in view of the 50bp cut still expected for 2H23. And with the equity market still not clear on the S&P500, with 70% of…

European economy, European politics, Interviews 28th January 2023

Veronika Grimm: “the high costs of fossil energies represent a stimulus to accelerate the transformation towards renewable energies”

Lidia Conde (Francfort) | Veronika Grimm (Rendsburg, Germany, 1971) sits on the German Federal Government’s Advisory Council of Economists, which analyses the country’s economic development on the basis of scientific criteria and publishes a report every autumn in which it expresses its analyses and forecasts. Following its opinion, the government in turn responds to the council’s recommendations. Now, Grimm predicts that the economy of the continent’s leading power will shrink…

European economy 27th January 2023

Good European data bolster hopes of avoiding recession

Portocolom AV | The US index of leading indicators, which hit a new low on Monday 23rd, seems to indicate that the US economy will enter recession in 2023. This indicator, which includes key economic data with the aim of predicting the rate of growth, has historically had a very high success rate in anticipating recessions. This has been the case in previous crises, such as the Covid-19 crisis, the…

European economy 26th January 2023

Could the worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years be a leading indicator for the Eurozone?

Santander Corporate & Research | The worst slump in UK services PMIs in two years, since the 2021 confinements, puts a clear question mark over the sustainability of an expected EZ economic recovery that explains the good momentum in credit markets. True, with these PMIs already above 50pt for the first time since June and the third consecutive month of improvement, our economists believe that the EZ may be able…

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European economy, In Europe 25th January 2023

Confidence in German economy improves. Ifo business climate index rises to 90.2 points in January, up from 88.6 in December

Ifo | This is due to considerably less pessimistic expectations. However, companies were somewhat less satisfied with their current situation. The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence. In the manufacturing sector, the index continued its upward trajectory. Companies assessed their current situation as better. Their expectations for the next six months are also noticeably better. The volume of orders is decreasing but remains at a high…

European economy, In Europe 25th January 2023

Eurozone activity returns to growth: composite PMI stands at 50.2 in January

CdM: This is what the PMI index data released on Tuesday by S&P Global shows. “Eurozone business activity increased slightly in the first month of 2023, signalling a hesitant return to growth after six consecutive months of decline.” Specifically, the Flash Eurozone Total Activity Composite PMI Index came in at 50.2 (49.3 in December), registering a seven-month high. This figure indicates “the first – albeit only modest – expansion in…

European economy 23rd January 2023

Lagarde insists “staying the course” is her monetary policy mantra

Link Securities | European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Friday that “staying the course” is her mantra on monetary policy and urged central banks around the world to do the same to achieve output recovery. Lagarde described 2022 as “a strange, strange year” as the low growth figures seen in the world’s largest economies were “not usual”. However, she expressed hope that “cooperatives, consumers, and state policymakers…

European economy 20th January 2023

New EU regulation to fund green industry will counter risks of relocation due to foreign subsidies

Morgan Stanley| According to a Bloomberg report, the German chancellor and his party will ask the EU to create a joint financing system to help compete against green energy subsidies in the US. The article also referred to increased subsidies for batteries, green hydrogen, and increased deployment of clean/green technologies. A positive market reaction is expected, especially from stocks benefiting from a European version of the Inflation Reduction Act to…

European economy, In Europe 19th January 2023

Europe weathers winter, but gas prices 3 times higher than 2010 – 2019

Banca March| This week sees Europe cross the halfway point of the winter season with reserves at 81%, well above the usual average for this time of year, favoured by temperatures in December and half of January that have been unusually high for the winter season. In northern Europe, for example, average temperatures at the end of the year were up to eight degrees higher than the average over the…

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