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elecciones generales

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 31st May 2023

23-07-23: translating results of municipals to generals is an inconsistent exercise

Fernando González Urbaneja | Quite a few (including two national newspapers) have applied the arithmetic template of Sunday’s results to a general election with a result that would be favourable to the grand coalition of the left/nationalists, headed and sponsored by Pedro Sánchez. In this case the PP would be the most voted party with 140 deputies (with VOX in retreat below 20 seats) while the PSOE would remain as…

talgos

Companies, Relevant News Item, Spanish economy 31st May 2023

Good news for Talgo and CAF: Adif to start second phase of long-distance rail liberalisation

Renta 4 | Adif has announced that it will start the second phase of the liberalisation of long-distance rail transport. The lines to be put out to tender are those to Murcia, Galicia, Extremadura, the Basque Country and Asturias. Renfe, Iryo, Ouigo, Eco Rail, Euskotren and FGC have already expressed interest in participating in this contract. One of the key points is that Adif will include in the tender the…

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In Spain, Spanish economy 30th May 2023

Inflation resumes downward trend in May: drops 9/10 of a point to 3.2%, core inflation slows to 6.1%

CdM | The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in May compared to the previous month and cut its year-on-year rate by nine tenths to 3.2%, its lowest level since July 2021, due to the moderation in food prices and lower fuel prices. With the fall in May, inflation has resumed its downward trend after the rise of eight tenths of a percentage point in April, which put it…

congreso diputados1

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 30th May 2023

July 23rd: The sooner the better

Fernando Gonzéz Urbaneja | The expectation of a very tough six-month election campaign weighed on Sánchez’s conscience throughout the evening after the evidence of Sunday’s results. This explains why bringing forward the elections is tactical and opportunistic (in political logic), and also why Feijóo began his speech in front of the cameras with the words: “the sooner the better”. Better for the incumbent who defends the results of November 2019,…

espana europa billete 1

In Spain, Relevant News Item, Spanish economy 30th May 2023

Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- with a stable outlook and revises 2023 GDP growth forecast upwards to 1.9%

Bankinter : Fitch maintains Spain’s rating at A- with a stable outlook. Fitch has revised the expected growth for 2023 upwards to 1.9% year-on-year (+0.7pp) reflecting “buoyant recovery in tourism and rising public sector investment. This has offset the weakness in private consumption, which recorded a second consecutive quarterly decline”. It projects a reduction in Public Debt/GDP to 110.4% by December 2024, “driven mainly by nominal GDP growth while primary…

elecciones generales

In Spain, Relevant News Item, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 29th May 2023

Sánchez brings forward general elections to July 23 after debacle in regional and municipal polls

The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has announced that the general election will be brought forward to next July 23 after the electoral defeat suffered this Sunday by the PSOE in the regional and municipal polls. The head of the Executive has assumed this Sunday’s electoral results “in first person” and his response is that this means “submitting the popular mandate to the popular will”, as he has stated…

sanchez elections

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 29th May 2023

Sánchez sinks the PSOE and Spain turns to the PP

Sánchez’s PSOE has insisted on cordon sanitaire not only with the far-right Vox, but even with the right-wing PP, with which it has refused to agree anything, while explaining the benefits of granting amnesty to the perpetrators of the attempted coup in Catalonia, of negotiating with the heirs of ETA, and with the populists of Podemos. Something that is incomprehensible to the vast majority of the electorate, even on the…

inflation rises

Spanish economy 27th May 2023

Does the recent upturn in inflation signal the end of a 40-year disinflation cycle?

Capital Group | In the two graphs published below you can see the evolution of inflation data in both the short and the long term. In the second one, we see inflation and money supply indicators moving downwards (with some logic). On the other hand, if we look longer term, our experts extend the inflation data back to 1955 and wonder whether the pick-up we saw in inflation in recent…

Repsol's new challenge is the sale of Gas Natural's stake

In Spain, Spanish economy 26th May 2023

Repsol raises dividend by 11% and denounces European regulatory strategy for “lack of planning”

Repsol achieved a record profit of €4,251 million in 2023, a 70% increase, due to the increase in the price of crude oil and gas. The good results were boosted by the refining margin, which increased 6.5 times compared to 2021. Oil production amounted to 550,000 barrels of oil equivalent, down 3.8%. In terms of investments, the CEO, Josu Jon Imaz, announced investments of 5,000 million for this year and…

spain foreign policy

In Spain, Spanish economy, Spanish Politics 25th May 2023

Círculo de Economía describes stagnation of Spanish economy

Fernando González Urbaneja| The government’s official discourse is unequivocal: Spain is doing well, the economy is doing very well. Vice-president Calviño comes out insistently with the concept of “leadership” to illustrate every decision of the government in economic and social matters. Gender parity means leadership; the Iberian exception is leadership; the growth of employment and GDP means leadership and so on and so forth. According to the government, Spain is…