Spanish economy

Iberdrola

Iberdrola, attractive growth and high visibility; Buy (T.P. 12,50 vs 11,90 euros/share)

Bankinter | Upward revision to targets in the Strategic Plan 2025. Attractive growth and strong visibility in results. Iberdrola has revised upward the objectives in its Strategic Plan 2025. It now expects EBITDA in 2025 of 16.5-17.0 billion euros vs 15 billion previously, and NAP of 5.2-5.4 billion euros vs 5 billion previously. Average annual growth rate in EBITDA and NA`P in the period 2022-2025 will be between 8% and…


pallete telefonica

Telefónica reassures the hybrid market

Telefónica has placed a new €750mn green hybrid bond with a coupon of 7.125% and a call option exercisable between August and November 2028. At the same time, Telefónica has launched an offer to exchange any and all of the €1.5bn still outstanding on the two hybrids with calls in March and September 2023. Thus, by redeeming all of the outstanding bonds, Telefónica will reduce its outstanding hybrid balance by…


Private debt

Gross issues could grow 8% in 2023 to €830 B; with corporate issues rising 20%, banks up 1%

Santander Corporate & Investment | The rally in the secondary market will boost the primary market. This is a phenomenon which is not new. There are clear examples in 2009, 2012, 2019 and the second half of 2020, where the improvement in the markets translated into increases in gross issues of 115%, 78%, 37% and 17% respectively. We believe this pattern could be repeated in 2023, above all during a…


Amadeus

Downward revision in Amadeus to take into account a more complicated macro backdrop; Hold (T.P. 58,5 vs 63,50 euros/share)

Renta 4 | Q3 figures have consolidated the trend towards a recovery of 2019 levels. The decline in revenues is close to one digit: -13% vs Q3’19 (-17% in Q2), EBITDA: -20%, also improves, +4pp vs Q2 (ex German government aid). That said, this recovery has been held back by disruptions in European airports and travel restrictions in Asia. Recovery continues in Q4, at a slow pace Reservations show a…


Aena

With almost 24 M trips, Aena’s air traffic figures in October were down just 3% on 2019

Intermoney | Aena (Hold, T.P. 140 euros/share) announced is traffic figures for October on Friday. The company managed almost 24 million trips, 3% less than the same month in 2019. Last month, the dichotomy between the tourist airports continued. Palma (+5%) and Lanzarote (+11%)’s figures were well above pre-pandemic levels, while Barajas and El Prat airports’ figures are still on average 10% below those levels. In the year to date,…


Inflation Spain

CPI falls to 7.3% in October, with food up 15%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by three tenths of a percentage point in October compared to the previous month and suddenly cut its year-on-year rate by 1.6 points to 7.3%. This is the lowest figure since January, just before war broke out in Ukraine, when the CPI stood at 6.1%, according to the final data published today by the National Statistics Institute (INE). The body has thus maintained the…


Colonial

The Socimis are already trading at big discounts of 55%-65% to NAV due to rate hikes: BUY Colonial

Bankinter |The Spanish Socimis are facing a more than foreseeable downward adjustment to the value of their assets (GAV), in light of the hike in interest rates in the last few months and the potential recession. This decrease in the valuation of their portfolios will have an impact on accounting profit and on leverage, which could already be reflected in certain areas at end-year. Our analyst team’s view: Negative news,…


Iberdrola

Iberdrola estimates €47 billion investments to 2025; but 57% will be earmarked for networks, 38% for renewables vs previous plan

Renta 4 | Against the current backdrop of uncertainty, Iberdrola has decided to make a small a shift in its investments’ strategy, giving increased priority to investment in networks vs renewables, with respect to the firm’s previous plan. In the period 2023-2025, it estimates investing 47 billion euros (84% for growth). This is very similar to the investments forecast in the previous plan, although 57% will be earmarked for networks…


Strike

The strike of self-employed hauliers has begun

Finally there will be a strike by the hauliers’ employers. This Monday 14 November, from midnight, the Platform for the Defence of the Road Freight Transport Sector intends to bring the country to a standstill, just as it did for 20 days in March. And it is doing so on the eve of Black Friday and the Christmas campaign. To begin with, it has very little support and a great…


Naturgy

Naturgy’s profit to September grows 36% to €1.061 billion

Naturgy earned up to September 1.061 billion euros, which represents a growth of more than 36% in an environment of high volatility in prices in the international energy markets and in a time of “high regulatory uncertainty”. In the first nine months, investments have grown by 26% to 2.6 billion euros. The board of directors has approved an interim dividend of 0.40 euros for the financial year 2022, which will…