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dollar rally

In the World, World economy 31st August 2020

The Weak Dollar: Why It Won’t Be Replaced As Global Reserve Currency

Arturo Bris via The Conversation | Stock markets have been very strange this year. For international investors in general, currency risk – above all the weakening of the US dollar – has become the most important financial risk of the year. For a European investor, for example, US markets have yielded about 5% in US dollar terms) in the first eight months of 2020. Translated back into euros, however, that return is 0.5% because of the depreciation of the US dollar over the past two months. 

Japanese general

In the World, World economy 29th August 2020

“Same Wine, Different Bottle” – What Next For Japan?

Today’s official resignation of Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe ended weeks of speculation following a number of hospital visits over the past month (…) The two front runners for Prime Minister are probably Shigeru Ishiba (photo) and Fumio Kishida. While neither would be likely be politically revolutionary, Ishiba has been more critical of Abe in the past and was recently quoted saying: “We need to rethink everything about Japan… Stocks are not the whole economy. We need to change the system where all wealth accumulates with stockholders and people who manage companies.” Given his more populist stance it is unsurprising that he is popular, regularly topping public polls for the preferred next PM. Kishida by contrast has been moulded and promoted by Abe himself, and never will the cliché above be more true than if he is chosen to take over from his political mentor.

White House 1- Fed 0

In the World, World economy 28th August 2020

Fed Monetary Policy Review – No FAIT But What We Make

David Page, Head of Macro Research at AXA Investment Managers | Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered the first shared address to a (virtual) Jackson Hole Monetary Conference. He delivered the conclusions of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Review, a process that was started in early 2019, and was due to be announced earlier this year, before the pandemic delayed the release. The Review maintained the broad pillars of Fed policy making: a dual mandate with employment and price stability goals, with price stability defined as 2% over the long term. However, it made three changes…

FEDBALANCE

In the World, World economy 26th August 2020

The Real Challenge Facing The Fed

Mobeen Tahir, Associate Director, Research, WisdomTree | The biggest challenge facing the Fed in the coming months (and years) is to sketch a roadmap for closing the floodgates of liquidity. At this point in time, it might seem like a ‘nice problem to have’. But given long and variable lags between policy implementation and impact on economy, these are issues the Fed needs to be thinking about now. While the Fed’s mandate is to promote maximum employment and ensure price stability, markets have become highly dependent on central bank accommodation as a propellant. As unemployment (currently 10.2% in the US) decreases and inflation (US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index inflation is currently 0.9%) rises closer to the Fed’s desired target level of 2%, the central bank will need to tighten policy.

okNamibia

In the World, World politics 24th August 2020

Apologies Or Reparations?

Donato Ndongo-Bidyogo | Tanzania also wants reparations from Germany for the atrocities carried out between 1905 and 1907. “Other countries have been compensated for war crimes. Why not us?, said MP Cosato Chumi. ​Berlin acknowledges the genocide but it doesn’t want to pay reparations and it is trying to agree some formal apology with Windhoek (Namibia). Ruprecht Polenz, the German negotiator says genocide does not imply reparations, only political and moral redress. In Dodoma (Tanzania), the German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas proposed “forms of mutual support” other than “compensation.” Given the concern of other former empires and the necessary paradigm shift in Euro-African relations, Merkel is in two minds about opening this Pandora’s box. 

Jay Powell

In the World, World economy 23rd August 2020

Inflation Is The Key

Chris Iggo (AXA Investment Managers) | Next month the Fed is expected to announce some changes to its long-term monetary policy framework. Many observers expect that to include an “average inflation target” which in theory means the Fed will allow inflation to rise above 2% for a long enough period to compensate for when inflation has been below 2%. It likely will need to back this up with forward guidance suggesting that rates won’t be increased until it is convinced its inflation target (and maybe an unemployment target) has been met. 

Gold

Markets, World economy 21st August 2020

A Moment In Markets – Was It A Shift In Sentiment?

Mobeen Tahir, Associate Director, Research, WisdomTree | On Tuesday, 11 August, gold fell by over 5% and silver retreated nearly 15% prompting investors to wonder if there had been a material shift in market sentiment. Are defensive hedges no longer required? How important are gold and silver as risk sentiment improves? A glance towards the wider market, and indeed economic fundaments, can help answer these questions.

US flag

In the World, World economy 20th August 2020

U.S.A… The perfect storm

BBVA Research | Bureaucratic missteps by the CDC and the FDA, contradictory messages from elected officials, disregard for intelligence reports, science and experts, lack of medical equipment, years of underfunding public-health departments, spread of misinformation, and private healthcare institutions with misaligned incentives created the perfect storm. Unfortunately, the number of deaths will increase further. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, total deaths could reach 205K to 524K by December 1, implying that Covid-19 will rank as the third leading cause of death in 2020, after heart disease and cancer. 

US presidents

In the World, World economy 18th August 2020

A Slow and Uneven Recovery Still Likely Despite July’s U.S. Price Bounce

Tiffany Wilding, North America Economist, PIMCO | A rebound in prices across travel and leisure categories in July 2020 drove the largest increase in core U.S. inflation since January 1991, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing 0.6% month-over-month (m/m). This was enough to boost the year-over-year (y/y) rate to 1.57% as of July, up from 1.19% as of June, despite expectations for a further drop amid the economic challenges posed by COVID-19. The sectors hit hardest by the crisis were the same categories that led prices higher in July. Shelter price inflation also rebounded.