McDonald’s was born in 1948, after the crisis following the US government’s demobilisation from the war economy. Airbus, Microsoft, and Starbucks were founded during the stagflation era of the 1970s. Firms that are able to adapt and grow in difficult times often present attractive long-term investment opportunities. Which companies will become market leaders after the Covid-19 crisis?
BofA Global Research | Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the global gold sector “heated” up in Q2’20 with twelve transactions announced (highest quarterly total since Q4’12) with a total transaction value of $2.86 billion, nearly double that in Q1’20. Historically global gold sector M&A activity heats up during times of buoyant gold prices. The “elephant-in-the-room” was SSR Mining’s friendly $1.71 billion all share merger with Alacer Gold on May 11 2020. The remaining eleven transactions ranged in size from $27mn to $238mn.
Trinh D. Nguyen (Natixis) | Here comes the good news: emerging Asia is turning the corner and on its upward trajectory in terms of growth in H2 2020. But increasingly, the pace of recovery from the trough is much slower for some and faster for others, creating widening divergence in emerging Asia. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines to a lesser extent, have shown a rapid rebound from their trough, based on the latest June manufacturing data. Other indicators such as retail sales also confirm this. That said, Indonesia and India are still struggling as the recovery is more sluggish and in contractionary territory. Singapore and Thailand are also lagging but have more buffers to offset drag.
James Reilly (Schroeders)| The current coronavirus crisis appears to be a rather potent cocktail of all three of these events: a viral epidemic more widespread than SARS, an economic downturn sharper than the GFC, and a fear of flying comparable to the aftermath of 9/11. This points to a trough far greater than the 45% downturn in international travel seen nine months into the GFC.
John Whittaker (The Conversation) | MMT proponents argue that governments can spend as necessary on all desirable causes – reducing unemployment, green energy, better healthcare and education – without worrying about paying for it with higher taxes or increased borrowing. Instead, they can pay using new money from their central bank. The only limit, according to this view, is if inflation starts to rise, in which case the solution is to increase taxes.
Patrik Lang, CFA Head of Equity Strategy Research, Julius Baer | For Q2 consensus expects S&P 500 earnings to decline 43.9%, which would be the largest y/y earnings decline since Q4 2008 (-69%). For Q3 consensus expects earnings to decline by -25.4% and for Q4 by -12.8% followed by 28% earnings growth in FY 2021. Based on our macro models and historical post-recession earnings patterns, we see upside risk to consensus expectations for both H2 2020 and FY 2021.
DWS | There are a few reasons to think that unlike the economy, inflation could see a V-shaped recovery. Recently published inflation data seem to confirm this theoretical view. Without taking into account the energy component, which, thanks to the oil price, fluctuated wildly in 2020, the inflation rate in the Eurozone was 1.3% in June. That is exactly the same level as at the beginning of the year.
Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | The USDJPY pair has remained broadly range – bound after central banks aggressively intervened to stabilise financial markets from the sharp moves triggered by the outbreak of the pandemic. The pair’s range during the onset of the virus widened to nearly 10% between the end of February and mid – March. USDJPY volatility has since subsided, with the range falling to a maximum of 3.5 % after April to date
Manuel Moreno Capa | As Nasdaq flirts with historical highs, voices warning that the technology bubble is about to burst are growing. When? Impossible to know, although a good guide may be to analyse which technologies are about to stop being so, becoming just one more company in their corresponding sector. And now we see cases of technology firms which are increasingly similar to the sector they came to revolutionise: methods of payment (Wirecard) or media (Facebook).
Mark Callender (Schroeders) | Some real estate investors believe the successful working from home experiment during this crisis will lead to a long-term decline in demand for offices. We think this is premature. New technologies such as blockchain, robotic process automation and voice recognition probably pose a bigger threat to the office. However, the demand for offices in city centres and close to universities should continue to increase, driven by the growth in tech, life sciences and professional services.