Europe’s tech sector has long been overshadowed by the “superstar” tech firms in the US and Asia. Arguably no tech stock in Europe is a household name, certainly not one with the instant recognition of Apple, Samsung, Microsoft or Google. Nokia once came close when it was famed for its handsets. It lives on, albeit as a less conspicuous networks provider.
Unigestión | Whether it is called QE or not, buying bills (swapping reserves for short-term bonds), injecting liquidity into the market place and growing the balance sheet affects risky assets. Market conditioning (the Pavlovian effect) since the GFC is that stock markets cannot go down when the Fed is growing the balance sheet. Additionally, the Fed’s extremely aggressive response to the repo blowout in September is another signal to markets that it has a very low tolerance for market fluctuations.
Growing concerns from US and European investors and regulators over the sustainability of integrated oil and gas companies’ business models have brought forward their potential impact on the sector’s credit quality to the medium from long term. Scope Ratings says the near-term, 2020 credit outlook for the integrated oil & gas sector remains stable.
Trade barriers are causing more insolvencies in the agricultural sector, while the retail sector is vulnerable to rising import costs. Crédito y Caución expects the United States to deepen its slowdown in 2020. The Spanish credit insurer expects GDP growth of 1.7%, largely supported by private consumption in the face of weak investment, public spending and exports. Although household finances are in better shape than a decade ago, among companies there has been an increase in debt and a deterioration in their credit capacity.
TwentyFour Asset Management’s CEO Mark Holman thinks central banks will move on rates any time soon, but where the first move comes from might be harder to call. They are sure it will not be the UK, thank goodness and also sure it won’t be the ECB. It won’t be the US in the near future either.
By Kevin Flanagan, (Head of Fixed Income Strategy, WisdomTree) / This year has got off to an unusual start in the financial markets. Typically, the focus would be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and/or economic developments, but unfortunately the coronavirus has taken centre stage. I thought it would be useful to offer some insights from a bond market perspective, using the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak of November 2002 to July 2003 as a comparative event.____¨
Timothy Joseph via The Conversation | The U.S. Senate has made its judgment in the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, acquitting the president. This process recalls the ancient Roman senate’s compliance with the autocratic rule of the emperors and its transformation into a body largely reliant on the emperors’ whims.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | Policymakers in China made a credible move in their attempt to regain control over the current situation. After injecting liquidity into financial markets, they announced the potential for a cure/vaccination available soon and later cut some tariffs on US imports. Fear-stricken markets took a sigh of relief.
Compared to the SARS epidemic, it is clear that the way in which China has responded to this virus is a major departure from its posture back in 2003. It is clear that Beijing has learned its lessons. This time, the Chinese government informed the World Health Organization on December 31 about the new virus which had been identified on December 26. With the SARS crisis, they did not report the virus to the WHO until four months after the first case was detected.
As investors are still struggling to properly price the impact of the coronavirus, volatility in financial markets remains elevated. Risk-on sentiment returned to the markets yesterday, putting pressure on gold. Barring a longer-lasting impact on Chinese growth, we do not expect much more fundamental short-term support from the virus for gold. However, on a longer-term horizon we still see upside and maintain a Constructive view.